Stock Markets July 1, 2026 04:02 PM

Guggenheim Raises Ratings on Salesforce, Check Point and ServiceNow, Says AI Fears Are Overstated

Brokerage argues current software valuations embed excessively negative AI outcomes and expects subscription growth to stabilize by 2026 with possible reacceleration into 2027

By Avery Klein
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Guggenheim Securities upgraded Salesforce, Check Point Software Technologies and ServiceNow to Buy, arguing that market fears about AI-driven disruption have pushed software stock valuations too low. The firm left specific price targets for each name and said it expects subscription revenue growth to stabilize in 2026 and potentially reaccelerate in late 2026 and 2027, supporting higher multiples than current share prices imply.

Guggenheim Raises Ratings on Salesforce, Check Point and ServiceNow, Says AI Fears Are Overstated
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Key Points

  • Guggenheim upgraded Salesforce, Check Point and ServiceNow to Buy, assigning price targets of $228, $188 and $125 respectively.
  • The brokerage believes AI-related selling has pushed software valuations too low and expects subscription revenue growth to stabilize in 2026, with potential reacceleration in late 2026 and 2027.
  • Guggenheim expects AI to benefit cloud infrastructure, security and data intelligence while pressuring DevOps, workplace collaboration and horizontal applications - impacting the broader software sector and related markets.

Guggenheim Securities moved three enterprise software names to Buy, saying investor concern about the impact of artificial intelligence has produced overly pessimistic valuations across the sector. The brokerage upgraded Salesforce, Check Point Software Technologies and ServiceNow, and set explicit price targets for each company while outlining a broader view of how AI may affect software demand and multiples.

Upgrades and targets

  • Salesforce was upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a $228 price target. Guggenheim noted the stock has fallen roughly 41% year-to-date and said current market prices appear to price in a very negative AI outcome, even as the firm acknowledges agentic AI may pose long-term risks to the company's growth.
  • Check Point Software was raised to Buy with a $188 price target. The brokerage highlighted Check Point's recurring revenue and cash flow profile and said the shares trade at a meaningful discount to peers.
  • ServiceNow was upgraded to Buy with a $125 target. Guggenheim stated that ServiceNow remains positioned for double-digit growth even though the mechanics and timing of AI monetization for the company remain uncertain.

Guggenheim's sector view

The firm said fears of an AI-driven "SaaSpocalypse" have pressured valuations across software, but that those prices imply perpetual declines that are unlikely to occur. Guggenheim expects subscription revenue growth across the software sector to stabilize in 2026 and potentially reaccelerate in late 2026 and 2027, which would support higher valuation multiples than currently embedded in share prices.

Guggenheim also outlined which parts of the software ecosystem it believes AI will favor and which it expects to face headwinds. The brokerage identified cloud infrastructure, security and data intelligence as likely beneficiaries of AI adoption. Conversely, it flagged potential pressure for DevOps, workplace collaboration and horizontal applications.

Concluding assessment

While acknowledging that AI will reshape the industry and that certain companies may face slower growth trajectories, Guggenheim argued many established software vendors should remain relevant and profitable. The upgrades reflect the firm's view that current market valuations are pricing in an excessively dire outlook for those incumbents.


Market note: The article referenced movements in the stocks mentioned (CHKP +2.18%, CRM +4.25%, NOW +6.54%).

Risks

  • Agentic AI poses potential long-term risks to Salesforce's growth prospects, a risk explicitly acknowledged by Guggenheim - impact concentrated in enterprise CRM and related software markets.
  • Uncertainty around how and when AI will be monetized at companies like ServiceNow, leaving near-term revenue and margin outcomes unclear - primarily affecting enterprise workflow and automation segments.
  • Market valuations currently imply perpetual declines; if that view proves incorrect, investors face valuation risk across the software sector as expectations adjust.

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