Stock Markets July 25, 2026 04:18 PM

Flavio Bolsonaro launches presidential run in Sao Paulo, highlights backing from Milei and Netanyahu

Senator vows tax cuts and tougher crime measures while invoking his father's legacy amid campaign setbacks and mixed political support

By Caleb Monroe
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Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro officially opened his presidential campaign in Sao Paulo, presenting endorsements from Argentine President Javier Milei, an AI-generated message from his imprisoned father Jair Bolsonaro, and a video address from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He pledged tax reductions and a harder line on crime while emphasizing continuity with his father's political project. The launch came amid polling that still favors President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, internal campaign controversies and limited alliance-building by center-right parties.

Flavio Bolsonaro launches presidential run in Sao Paulo, highlights backing from Milei and Netanyahu
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Key Points

  • Flavio Bolsonaro formally launched his presidential campaign in Sao Paulo, highlighting support from Argentine President Javier Milei, an AI-generated message from his jailed father Jair Bolsonaro, and a video address from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - impacts political sector and voter sentiment.
  • He pledged tax cuts and a tougher approach to crime while emphasizing continuity with his father’s political legacy - impacts policy expectations relevant to fiscal policy and domestic security spending.
  • The campaign faces organizational and political challenges, including leaked messages linking Bolsonaro to jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro, a public dispute with Michelle Bolsonaro, and neutral stances by center-right parties - affecting electoral dynamics and political risk perceptions.

Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro on Saturday formally announced his bid to challenge President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in October’s presidential election, centering his launch event in Sao Paulo around high-profile endorsements and a pledge to carry forward his father's political project.

Addressing supporters who waved green and yellow flags, Bolsonaro made an emotional appeal to voters and invoked family ties, declaring "Here is Bolsonaro’s blood." The arena where he spoke was nearly full but did not reach capacity.

Bolsonaro used the event to highlight support from abroad and from his immediate circle. Argentine President Javier Milei traveled to Brazil and delivered a forceful speech condemning Lula and asserting that Bolsonaro could "save" Brazil from socialism. Milei had flown into Brazil the night before and met on Saturday with Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas.

In addition to Milei's physical presence, the campaign showcased an AI-generated message from former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently under house arrest for his role in an attempt to overturn the election that Lula won. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a video address that was played at the rally, and former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro - Flavio’s stepmother - also appeared via video to offer her endorsement in remarks directed at women voters.

Michelle Bolsonaro’s video thanked supporters and invoked a blessing for the campaign, saying, "Flavio, may God bless and protect your candidacy." Her appearance followed a recent public reconciliation between her and Flavio after a dispute had unfolded in video exchanges on social media.

The senator restated policy priorities at the launch, pledging cuts to taxes and a tougher stance on crime, and repeatedly emphasized his commitment to continuing the political legacy associated with his father.

Yet the campaign has encountered headwinds. In December, Flavio Bolsonaro secured his father's endorsement to run. Despite that early endorsement, the campaign's momentum waned in May after leaked messages tied him to jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro. Bolsonaro later acknowledged that Vorcaro had financed a film about his father's political career.

Observers at the event and supporters interviewed conveyed optimism, even as polls show Lula retaining an advantage. A Datafolha poll released Friday had Lula leading Bolsonaro 48% to 43% in a runoff, a slight increase for Lula from June figures.

Bolsonaro's standing has also been affected by the public dispute with Michelle Bolsonaro and by his close ties to U.S. President Donald Trump, whose administration has imposed tariffs on Brazilian goods - a point raised in coverage of the campaign's challenges.

Political alignment has been another difficulty. Center-right parties have so far opted for neutrality rather than formally endorsing Bolsonaro, leaving him to try to build support without those alliances.

At the launch, supporters expressed a range of motivations. Leandro Aguilar, 44, said he believed change was necessary and rejected allegations against Bolsonaro, adding that accusations came from the left. Janete Rubio, 68, appeared highly emotional during the event; at times she cried or danced while draped in Brazilian and U.S. flags, and she voiced a conviction that with U.S. support and the strength of Trump, Brazil could succeed.


Contextual note - The campaign launch combined in-person endorsements, digital messages and high-profile visitors to craft a narrative of continuity with Jair Bolsonaro's politics while seeking to broaden appeal amid polling deficits and weakened political alliances.

Risks

  • Momentum loss from May leaks that tied Bolsonaro to jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro could continue to undermine voter trust and campaign momentum - political and electoral risk.
  • Strained personal and public relationships, exemplified by the recent dispute and reconciliation with Michelle Bolsonaro, add reputational uncertainty for the campaign - reputational risk within political sector.
  • Limited formal alliances from center-right parties leave Bolsonaro without broader party backing, increasing uncertainty about his ability to assemble a winning coalition - coalition-building risk affecting electoral prospects.

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