Global pulp and paper prices showed a mix of small moves across regions this week, with Citi highlighting recent softness in European pulpwood as a potential near-term headwind for some Nordic producers.
On the raw price front, China import softwood prices ticked up marginally week-over-week to $640 per ton, while China import hardwood prices were unchanged at $563 per ton, Citi said. In Europe, both hardwood and softwood prices declined by roughly 1% on a week-over-week basis - the third consecutive weekly drop for those categories.
Containerboard markets diverged from pulpwood in the near term. Testliner gained 0.6% week-over-week and Kraftliner posted marginal gains, according to Citi's pricing snapshot. OCC spot prices also rose slightly week-over-week, extending upward momentum into the third quarter of 2026 after a robust second quarter.
Shanghai softwood pulp futures were stronger, with the August NBSK contract advancing 3.8% in CNY terms on a week-over-week basis. Measured in euros, August futures were approximately 8% above spot prices and about 7% higher than the average third-quarter price, indicating a futures curve that sits above current physical levels.
Citi's near-term view - Citi said the recent softening in European pulpwood prices over the prior three weeks is likely to exert downward pressure on Stora Enso and SCA share prices in the near term. Citi noted that higher pulp prices are beneficial for Stora Enso and SCA, while rising testliner prices support recycled board producers such as Mondi. Citi also pointed out the offsetting effect that higher OCC has on recycled board makers by increasing input costs.
Exposure across product lines varies by company. Stora Enso, SCA, Billerud, Holmen and Mondi all have exposure to kraftliner. Separately, Billerud, Holmen and Mondi have exposure to graphic paper - a segment where prices showed mixed results across different categories in Citi's review.
Medium-term outlook - On a 2026 average basis Citi's supply and demand assessment suggests pulp prices could be higher year-over-year as new supply is absorbed, containerboard prices could rise as demand recovers, and graphic paper prices could remain flat amid low utilization.
This combination of near-term European pulpwood softness, containerboard strength and a futures premium in Shanghai highlights a market in which product-specific dynamics and input-cost movements are producing differentiated outcomes for producers across the pulp and paper complex.