BMO Capital Markets lowered its ratings on Amgen Inc. and BioNTech to Market Perform from Outperform, arguing that upside for these biopharma names is now more limited and the balance of risk and reward has shifted.
Analyst Evan Seigerman retained a $450 price target on Amgen while moving the stock to Market Perform. Seigerman framed Amgen’s commercial execution as the baseline scenario after the shares rallied roughly 34% year-to-date, a performance that has outpaced both the broader S&P 500 and the NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical index.
Loss-of-exclusivity remains a central headwind for Amgen, Seigerman said, with pricing and volume pressure evident across multiple established products, including Prolia/XGEVA, Enbrel, Otezla and Kyprolis. On Amgen’s obesity candidate MariTide, Seigerman noted it "offers a potentially differentiated profile with less frequent dosing," but added that Phase 2 efficacy and tolerability findings leave unresolved questions about how competitive the drug will be versus existing injectable and oral therapies.
Market moves reflected mounting concern: Amgen shares dropped more than 5% in premarket trading Tuesday after Novartis disclosed that its cholesterol therapy pelacarsen failed in a closely watched study. That failure has implications for Amgen’s experimental cholesterol asset olpasiran. JPMorgan analysts commented that the Novartis result lowers expectations for olpasiran ahead of its late-stage readout, expected in late 2027 or early 2028. The brokerage said it is less convinced the drug’s effect would be "clinically meaningful enough to translate to a significant commercial opportunity," even if olpasiran posts a stronger signal than pelacarsen.
Separately, BMO cut BioNTech to Market Perform and reduced its price target to $105. The bank cited three primary drivers: steeper-than-anticipated erosion in sales of the COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty, an absence of de-risking results for the cancer candidate pumitamig until 2028, and moderated expectations for BioNTech’s mRNA-based iNeST program.
Comirnaty guidance has been adjusted lower multiple times, most recently by $400 million to a midpoint of $1.75 billion, reflecting weaker global vaccine demand and a reported inventory reduction in Germany. On that basis, BMO models Comirnaty revenue of approximately $629 million in 2027, below consensus forecasts of about $850 million.
Regarding pumitamig, Seigerman characterized the data as promising but not distinctly differentiating in a crowded non-small cell lung cancer landscape, pointing specifically to competitive data coming from Pfizer and the AbbVie/RemeGen collaboration. He also highlighted that BioNTech’s cash balance, which exceeds $16 billion, provides a valuation floor for the shares, but cautioned that near-term upside may be constrained.
The BMO actions reflect a reassessment of near-term commercial and clinical catalysts across both companies — weighing established product erosion and competitive dynamics against pipeline potential and balance-sheet strength. Investors tracking the biopharma sector should note that commercial execution, late-stage readouts and competitor trial outcomes are central variables governing sentiment for these stocks.