Foreign exchange markets and global currency movements.
Coverage of currency markets including major pairs, central bank actions, interest-rate differentials, and geopolitical influences. This section highlights trends in FX markets that impact global trade, inflation, and cross-asset correlations.
197 total articles
CIBC Economics argues the sharp US dollar decline in late January reflected a cluster of short-lived, unrelated events and heavy speculative positioning rather than a structural loss of value for the greenback. As those episodic drivers unwind, the bank expects the dollar to find a floor near DXY 98.50 and to weaken gradually through the first half…
The Australian dollar surged to its strongest level in three years after Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that inflationary pressures remain persistent and that the central bank would not hesitate to raise rates again if required. The move was supported by a softer U.S. dollar ahead of critical U.S. jobs data, and come…
The yen sustained gains on Wednesday, supported by a rally in Japanese equities and investor expectations that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election victory could lead to more fiscally cautious policies. The dollar showed signs of fragility ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, following weaker U.S. retail sales and a slowdown in …
A strategist at State Street cautions that the U.S. dollar could fall by as much as 10% this year if the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates more aggressively than current market expectations once a new chair assumes office. The forecast rests on the view that deeper cuts would lower the cost for foreign investors to hedge U.S. exposures, increa…
The U.S. dollar is trading close to one-week lows as investors await a sequence of U.S. economic reports that analysts at Bank of America Securities say could determine the currency's short-term direction. The Dollar Index was around 96.700 at 09:00 ET (14:00 GMT). BofA highlights a slightly bearish bias for the dollar into the data flow, noting th…
The U.S. dollar traded marginally higher but remained close to one-week lows as traders positioned ahead of a cluster of U.S. economic releases later this week. Sterling fell after political pressure mounted on Prime Minister Keir Starmer over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States. Other majors showed mixed moves: th…
Most Asian currencies firmed on Tuesday as the dollar softened following an overnight drop, with the Japanese yen extending recent gains after government warnings about market intervention. Regional moves were restrained as traders awaited a busy calendar of U.S. economic data this week, including retail sales, nonfarm payrolls and the consumer pri…
CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld contends that recent commentary portraying the U.S. dollar as collapsing overstates the situation. Although the trade-weighted DXY is roughly 9% lower than a year ago, Shenfeld points to bond-market behavior and the dislocation between gold and the dollar as evidence that a true currency crisis has not occurred. The Fe…
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the U.S. dollar is expected to retain its leading role in the global financial system despite recent declines. Speaking at an IMF conference in Al-Ula, Saudi Arabia, she cited the depth and liquidity of U.S. capital markets, the economy's size and entrepreneurial dynamism as ke…
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a commanding victory in a snap election, giving her party more than two-thirds of lower house seats. Bank of America Securities says the result shifts market attention toward the prospect of foreign exchange intervention, while noting structural forces that could continue to weaken the yen over time. I…
The U.S. dollar weakened at the start of a data-heavy week, with the Dollar Index down 0.3% as investors await U.S. retail sales, inflation figures and a delayed payrolls report. The Japanese yen firmed after officials signaled possible intervention following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's lower house victory. Movements in other major pairs reflec…
HESTA, a major Australian pension fund with A$100 billion under management, has increased hedging of its international equity portfolio and boosted holdings of the Australian dollar, citing long-run valuation models that suggest the currency has been undervalued. The move comes as the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to raise rates while many ot…
Most Asian currencies traded in a narrow range on Monday, with the Japanese yen strengthening modestly after Japan's finance ministry stepped up warnings about possible market intervention. The yen's slight recovery came against the backdrop of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's decisive lower house victory, which raises concerns about expanded fiscal…
The U.S. dollar held close to two-week highs on Friday and was positioned for a solid weekly gain as a broad selloff in global equities, driven by worries over heavy AI-related spending, pushed investors toward safe-haven assets. Major European currencies posted modest recoveries after central banks left policy unchanged.
UBS said in a report released Thursday that the euro-to-pound exchange rate is likely to remain range-bound after the budget-related risk premium embedded in the British pound was largely removed. The bank highlighted firmer UK economic readings, an unchanged European Central Bank policy stance and uneventful Eurozone data as factors that have limi…
UBS forecasts a gradual appreciation in the GBP/CHF exchange rate as safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc eases. The bank notes that a budget-related risk premium that had weighed on the pound has been priced out, UK economic data has strengthened sterling, and a yield differential exceeding 3.5% makes the pound relatively attractive to yield-seek…
The Bank of England’s narrow 5-4 decision to keep interest rates unchanged took markets by surprise with a more dovish tone than expected. Investors have shifted expectations modestly toward a possible March rate cut, while the broader consensus still looks to the second quarter when clearer evidence of lower inflation is anticipated. Political unc…
Most Asian currencies moved within tight ranges on Friday as a generally firmer dollar and lower risk appetite weighed on the region. The Japanese yen recovered some ground intraday but remained fragile ahead of a decisive lower house election on Sunday. Markets also digested U.S. labor market data that softened the dollar on the day, while uncerta…
The Chinese yuan remained slightly softer on Friday morning but was positioned to notch its eleventh consecutive week of appreciation versus the U.S. dollar, the longest stretch since early 2013. Market participants pointed to strong export performance, seasonal FX conversions and a weak dollar as primary supports, even as short-term U.S. dollar vo…
The U.S. dollar firmed modestly on Thursday, recovering some ground amid renewed volatility in global equities. Traders shifted into the greenback after concerns about elevated AI-related spending dented risk appetite. The euro and sterling weakened following European Central Bank and Bank of England decisions to hold policy rates, while Asian curr…
Most Asian currencies weakened on Thursday as the U.S. dollar gained ground ahead of European and U.K. central bank meetings. Market jitters from a broader sell-off in global financial markets and a focus on upcoming policy decisions kept risk-sensitive currencies under pressure. The yen was notably soft ahead of Japan’s lower house elections, whil…
Bank of America Securities says recent appreciation in the Chinese yuan, supported by strong export flows and firmer policy signals, is likely to be an important driver for the foreign exchange landscape in both the near term and longer run. The People’s Bank of China set a firmer midpoint for the yuan, and BofA has revised its end-Q3 and Q4 USD/CN…
Poland's central bank said it may use foreign exchange interventions as part of its policy toolkit and reiterated that future monetary decisions will be guided by incoming economic data. Bank officials also highlighted fiscal policy as a continuing upside risk to consumer price inflation. A recent poll sees the zloty trading modestly firmer against…
Currency strategists surveyed between Jan. 30 and Feb. 4 expect the recent U.S. dollar recovery to be temporary. While a nomination to lead the Federal Reserve trimmed some dollar losses, the overarching view is that the dollar will remain choppy near term and then gradually weaken later in the year as markets cling to expectations for rate cuts an…
Bank of America has reduced its end-Q3 and end-Q4 forecasts for USD/CNY from 6.8 to 6.7, pointing to renewed momentum in the Chinese yuan underpinned by robust export performance and firmer policy signals. The bank outlines four themes shaping foreign exchange dynamics, highlights spillover effects to emerging market currencies, flags risks in EUR/…
