Standard Chartered's digital assets research desk has concluded that the cryptocurrency market may have reached the nadir of its current cycle, citing a recent Bitcoin trough of $59,000 that represents a 53% decline from the token's peak of $126,000.
Geoffrey Kendrick, StanChart's global head of digital assets research, identified two developments in a Friday note that could help confirm the turning point.
- Geopolitical détente linked to G7 talks - Kendrick said a U.S.-Iran peace deal tied to G7 discussions, if confirmed, could signal the end of elevated oil prices and, in turn, higher U.S. Treasury yields.
- SpaceX IPO and attendant liquidity dynamics - Kendrick suggested the long-anticipated SpaceX initial public offering may mark the end of a stretch of heavy selling by holders of Bitcoin spot ETFs, who he said have anecdotally been liquidating positions to free up cash ahead of the offering. He noted recent weeks have seen some of the sharpest ETF outflows since those products launched.
To validate his assessment that the market has bottomed, Kendrick listed three specific signs he wants to see: MicroStrategy publicly announce additional Bitcoin purchases on Monday; a day of positive ETF inflows; and continued declines in oil prices.
"Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring," he wrote.
Earlier this month, Kendrick also reiterated an earlier forecast that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by year-end. In that note he wrote that, looking back at the end of 2026 with bitcoin at $100k, "we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted."
Despite the bank's assessment, Bitcoin has lost more than half its value since its October peak, with the fall persisting even as the U.S. administration has rolled out a series of crypto-friendly policies. The token rose 0.9% to $63,337.8 on Friday and was on track for a small weekly gain, a rebound that followed a 17% plunge the prior week.
Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency remains close to its annual lows, pressured by ongoing institutional selling through spot exchange-traded funds. The analysis from StanChart frames these flows, oil-price dynamics and broader macro variables such as U.S. Treasury yields as central to whether the market will sustain any recovery.
MicroStrategy, which has been referenced by Kendrick as a potential confirming actor through further Bitcoin purchases, has recently shown stock price strength in line with renewed interest in its Bitcoin exposure.
Market context and mechanics - The note from Standard Chartered ties three moving parts together: geopolitical developments that could relieve oil-driven inflationary pressure, the timing and liquidity effects around a major equity offering, and the direction of ETF flows that have been materially affecting institutional demand for spot Bitcoin. Kendrick's checklist offers a short-run framework for how the bank would judge a durable market turn.