Jefferies raised its price objective on Lithium Americas Corp. (NYSE:LAC) shares to $8.00 from $7.00 and left its recommendation at Buy. The firm noted that the adjusted target implies considerable potential upside versus the then-current share price of $4.46, while an outside Fair Value estimate compiled by InvestingPro suggests the stock may be trading above that benchmark.
On project timing, Jefferies said Phase I of the Thacker Pass development remains on track for completion by the end of 2027, with a subsequent production ramp extending through 2028. The bank's production forecast calls for total output in the vicinity of 20,000 tonnes in 2028.
Jefferies also indicated that the anticipated volumes for Phase I are likely to be sold to General Motors (NYSE:GM). The firm assigns a Hold rating to GM and notes that the automaker currently consumes roughly 20,000 tonnes of lithium annually, which aligns with the expected production from the project in 2028.
On pricing and demand dynamics, Jefferies stated that current lithium market prices remain below levels that would trigger producer incentive thresholds. At the same time, the bank highlighted increasing expectations among producers driven by stronger demand for stationary energy storage applications.
Overall, Jefferies described the outlook as improving as commercial production from Lithium Americas ramps up, implying a more constructive operating environment for the company should production and offtake proceed as outlined.
Company disclosures and project status
Lithium Americas released its 2026 capital expenditure guidance for Phase I of the Thacker Pass project in Nevada, estimating spending between $1.3 billion and $1.6 billion. The company is advancing toward a planned mechanical completion late in 2027. As of the end of 2025, detailed engineering design was reported to be 93% complete, with procurement at 60%.
Staffing at the project site reached 950 people at year-end, including 740 manual craft workers. The company expects headcount to rise to approximately 1,800 at peak construction in 2026.
In a related market development, S&P Dow Jones Indices has announced that Lithium Americas will be added to the S&P/TSX Composite Index effective December 22, 2025. The inclusion was noted as a significant benchmark recognition, given the index's role representing large and actively traded Toronto Stock Exchange companies.
What this means
The combination of an increased analyst price target, an outlined production schedule and an apparent buyer in GM frames a near-term narrative for Lithium Americas centered on execution of construction and commercialization milestones. Capital expenditure guidance and the staffing trajectory offer tangible indicators of project progress, while market commentary on lithium pricing and stationary storage demand provides context for potential revenue environment changes as output scales.