Overview
The United Arab Emirates, a significant oil producer and a long-standing member of OPEC, announced it will leave the OPEC+ alliance effective May 1. OPEC+ refers to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and a group of allied non-OPEC producers, including Russia. At its peak in recent years the alliance accounted for close to half of global oil and oil liquids production.
Origins and evolution of OPEC and OPEC+
OPEC was established in 1960 in Baghdad by five founding members - Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia - with the stated aims of coordinating petroleum policies among members and supporting fair, stable prices. Over time the bloc expanded to include 12 countries, primarily from the Middle East. The UAE joined OPEC in 1967.
As new non-OPEC supply sources emerged, OPEC's share of global crude output declined from more than half in the 1970s to levels between roughly 30% and 40% in later decades. To regain influence, in 2016 OPEC formed an alliance with 10 non-member producers, including Russia, known as OPEC+. That expanded alliance boosted its combined output share back toward the midpoint of the market; reported figures show the alliance's production reached near 51.15 million barrels per day (bpd) - nearly 50% of world oil and oil liquids production - in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency.
Recent shifts and member departures
The UAE's decision to leave makes it the fourth producer to exit OPEC in recent years and is the largest by scale. Angola left at the start of 2024 after joining the cartel in 2007, citing disagreements over production levels. Ecuador departed in 2020 and Qatar in 2019. Those departures, together with production growth from non-OPEC rivals, have altered the composition and market influence of the group over time.
Production capacity and recent constraints
Before the onset of the U.S.-Iran war at the end of February, the UAE was producing roughly 3.3 million bpd and was estimated to have capacity in the range of 4.5-5.0 million bpd for crude and oil liquids. The UAE's role was particularly important because, along with Saudi Arabia, it possessed spare capacity that could be brought to market if needed.
That dynamic has been disrupted by the exceptional market conditions created by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran war. In March, Gulf OPEC+ crude oil production fell by nearly 8 million bpd versus February as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq cut output. Those reductions were driven by limitations on export capability as the Strait of Hormuz became an effective bottleneck, although some producers retain alternative export routes.
For example, Saudi Arabia has a pipeline to the Red Sea with capacity of about 7 million bpd, while the UAE can move roughly 1.5-1.8 million bpd via a pipeline to the port of Fujairah. Nonetheless, the loss of maritime throughput through the Strait has materially constrained how much crude some Gulf producers can export.
How OPEC+ manages supply and market balance
OPEC+ frames its production adjustments as actions to balance global oil markets - cutting output when supply is judged excessive and raising output when markets are tight. Critics, however, argue that the group can also have the effect of manipulating prices by coordinating cuts or increases. OPEC has denied that it manipulates prices.
Historical episodes illustrate the potential economic impact of coordinated oil actions. During the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Arab OPEC members imposed an oil embargo on a subset of countries, leading to sharp price increases, fuel shortages and significant economic stress in affected nations. The episode is often cited as an example of how oil supply decisions by producing nations can translate into broad economic and consumer impacts.
In more recent political commentary, U.S. political leaders have criticized the organization for contributing to higher oil prices. The same political discourse notes that U.S. engagement in regional security has been linked to debates about the fairness of oil pricing and the strategic relationship between consuming and producing states.
Counterbalancing that criticism, at times political pressure has worked the other way: in 2020, during the COVID pandemic when crude prices slumped and U.S. producers were under stress, U.S. influence helped persuade OPEC+ to agree to output cuts.
Seaborne exports and shifting shares
OPEC's crude exports represent a substantial portion of global seaborne crude shipments. In 2025, OPEC crude exports accounted for about 47% of global crude seaborne exports, according to Kpler. By March of that year the alliance's seaborne share had fallen to 34.7% as disruptions and cuts altered flows.
Who remains in OPEC and in the OPEC+ alliance
The current roster of OPEC member states includes Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Venezuela. The UAE has stated it will leave the group on May 1.
Non-OPEC countries that participate in the wider OPEC+ coordination comprise Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, South Sudan, Sudan and Brazil, the latter having joined in early 2025.
Conclusion
The UAE's exit from OPEC+ removes a major producer from a bloc that has previously exercised substantial influence over global oil supply. The broader context includes evolving market shares due to rival supply growth, exceptional wartime disruptions that have constrained Gulf exports, and the continuing debate over whether collective production decisions by OPEC+ are aimed purely at market stability or also shift prices. For markets and consumers, the practical effects will depend on how remaining producers respond and how export routes and capacities are managed in the near term.