OPEC has reaffirmed a robust outlook for global oil demand through 2030 while nudging up its projection for mid-century consumption, according to its latest assessment. The group now expects world oil demand to rise to 113.3 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, up from 105.1 million bpd in 2025. OPEC said these 2025 and 2030 estimates are largely unchanged from the prior World Oil Outlook report.
In a revision to its longer-run view, OPEC raised its forecast for 2050 to 124 million bpd, compared with the 122.9 million bpd it projected in its previous report. The organization reiterated its stance that oil demand will not peak in the foreseeable future.
OPEC attributed the anticipated increase in consumption to a combination of policy adjustments and demographic and economic expansion across several regions. The group highlighted policy shifts in the United States, Europe and other jurisdictions as contributing factors, alongside continued long-term growth in India, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. OPEC also noted that China's progress in deploying renewable energy has not altered the overall demand trajectory it projects.
The report emphasizes that a renewed policy emphasis on energy security and affordability by governments has led to measures that support oil use over the medium and long term. OPEC cited specific examples to illustrate that trend - including slower adoption of electric vehicles in Europe and regulatory changes under President Donald Trump's administration that affect renewable energy incentives, electric vehicle policy and fuel efficiency standards.
At the same time, OPEC acknowledged near-term challenges for the group and the market. The organization said it faces disruptions in 2026 related to the Iran war, which has forced Gulf exporters to curtail exports. It also noted the departure of the United Arab Emirates after nearly 60 years of membership as a development for the organization.
The outlook diverges from other institutional projections. OPEC referenced the International Energy Agency's forecast, released in November, which estimated oil demand at 113 million bpd by mid-century - a figure the IEA said was significantly below OPEC's estimate.
Implications
For market participants and policymakers, the report underscores persistent demand drivers even as geopolitical and organizational dynamics introduce uncertainty. The outlook is likely to be watched by oil producers, refiners, energy traders and stakeholders in the transport and automotive sectors given the role of vehicle electrification in future demand scenarios.