U.S. and Ukrainian diplomats have canvassed an ambitious timetable that would see Moscow and Kyiv agree to a peace accord by March, accompanied by a simultaneous popular referendum and national elections - a schedule that multiple people with direct knowledge of the discussions say is unlikely to hold.
Under the framework being explored by U.S. and Ukrainian teams, any negotiated settlement would be put to Ukrainian voters in a referendum held at the same time as parliamentary or presidential elections, according to five sources who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe private talks. Three of those sources said U.S. negotiators conveyed in recent meetings in Abu Dhabi and Miami that it would be preferable for that combined vote to take place quickly.
The U.S. negotiating delegation is led by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, identified by sources as a principal U.S. interlocutor. Those sources added that U.S. officials have indicated President Donald Trump is expected to concentrate more on domestic matters as the November congressional midterms approach, reducing the time and political bandwidth available among senior U.S. policymakers to drive a deal to completion.
A second round of U.S.-facilitated discussions finished on Thursday in Abu Dhabi with the release of 314 prisoners of war and a pledge by the parties to resume talks soon. The Ukrainian president’s office has indicated the next trilateral meeting is likely to be held soon in the United States.
Some participants in the deliberations have suggested an even tighter deadline, with two sources saying U.S. and Ukrainian officials discussed the possibility of holding the national vote and referendum in May. But officials with visibility into the process described the U.S.-proposed timetable as optimistic. Ukrainian election authorities have estimated that organizing an election under current conditions would take roughly six months.
"The Americans are in a hurry," one source familiar with the negotiations said, while also noting that although a vote could be arranged in under six months, it would still require a significant amount of preparation time. Organizing such a combined vote would also require legislative changes because votes are currently prohibited during martial law in Ukraine, and conducting the vote would carry substantial costs.
Ukrainian authorities insist on a ceasefire throughout the campaign period to safeguard the referendum’s integrity, and several sources warned that Kyiv views the Kremlin as having a record of failing to uphold agreed pauses in fighting. One source summed up Kyiv’s negotiating stance: nothing can be agreed until security guarantees for Ukraine from the United States and partner countries are secured.
The White House declined to comment. The Ukrainian president’s office and the Russian embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
While Kyiv has dispatched senior political figures to the negotiations - including the president’s chief of staff and the leader of his parliamentary faction - sources described the Russian delegation as being more military in composition and headed by the chief of the GRU military intelligence service, Admiral Igor Kostyukov.
Complicating the diplomatic environment, Kostyukov’s deputy, Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeyev, was shot in Moscow on Friday by an assailant whose identity remains unknown. Russia’s foreign minister accused Ukraine of orchestrating the attack to derail the talks; Ukrainian officials have denied involvement. One Ukrainian official said the president is receptive to holding elections in the near future - a topic that U.S. negotiators have raised repeatedly since President Trump assumed office in January 2025 - and the official noted the president believes he would prevail, pointing to approval levels that, while lower than at the start of the 2022 invasion, remain above 50%.
The most significant impediment to a swift settlement, sources said, is the absence of a shared position on control of the Donbas region. Moscow has demanded control of the entire Donbas as a condition of any peace agreement, even though Kyiv currently retains over 2,000 square miles (5,180 square km) of territory there. Ukrainian negotiators consider Russia’s demand unacceptable, though they have signaled openness to exploring alternative arrangements, such as establishing demilitarized zones or special free-trade regimes.
"There’s still no progress on the territorial question," one person familiar with the talks said.
The status of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant - Europe’s largest - which sits in territory occupied by Russian forces, has also emerged as a major sticking point. One source described a U.S. proposal in which Washington would assume operational control of the plant and allocate its power output to both Russia and Ukraine; Moscow has rebuffed that plan, asserting it must retain control over the facility while offering Ukraine cheaper electricity - an option Kyiv finds unacceptable.
Even if negotiators were to reach agreement on those and other contentious issues, there is no guarantee Ukrainian voters would approve territorial concessions put before them. Russia currently occupies roughly 20% of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory, including Crimea and portions of the Donbas captured before the 2022 full-scale invasion. Sources familiar with territorial assessments say Russia has expanded its hold by about 1.3% since early 2023.
Public-opinion polling shows a clear majority of Ukrainians oppose ceding territory in exchange for Western security guarantees intended to deter future Russian aggression, though analysts who track these figures say the margin opposing concessions has narrowed slightly over the past year.
Summary - U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators have discussed a plan that would push for a March peace deal and a simultaneous referendum and national election, but sources say the schedule is likely optimistic. Key obstacles include unresolved territorial demands over the Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia power plant, legal barriers under martial law to holding elections, and recent security incidents affecting negotiators.
- Key points - The U.S. is advocating a rapid timeline for a deal and vote; 314 prisoners of war were released after the latest talks; territorial control of Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia plant remain unresolved.
- Sectors affected - Political risk affects energy markets (notably power generation tied to Zaporizhzhia), defense procurement, and broader investor sentiment toward regional assets and reconstruction-related supply chains.
- Risks and uncertainties - 1) Territorial impasse: lack of agreement over control of Donbas could prevent any deal from being finalized - impacting political stability and reconstruction planning. 2) Legal and logistical hurdles: martial law restrictions and the time needed to organize elections create practical obstacles to the U.S.-proposed timetable - affecting governance and investor certainty. 3) Security incidents: attacks on military figures and reciprocal accusations may undermine trust in the negotiation process and escalate tensions.
News wire brief - U.S. negotiators urged a March peace deal with a simultaneous referendum and elections in Ukraine, but sources say territorial disputes, martial law constraints and recent security incidents make the timeline unlikely to be met.