A new Datum Internacional survey released on Sunday night on local TV places two right-wing candidates - the daughter of a jailed former president and a former mayor of Lima - ahead of a sprawling slate of rivals as Peru moves toward its April 12 presidential election. Despite their lead, both top contenders command only single-digit margins of support and a large portion of the electorate either has not chosen a candidate or does not plan to vote.
The poll shows Keiko Fujimori at 10.7% and Rafael Lopez Aliaga at 10.0% in a contest that features a record 36 presidential hopefuls. Roughly two-fifths of those surveyed either declined to select a candidate or said they do not intend to vote in the first round, a level of abstention and indecision that leaves the outcome highly unsettled.
With the leaders’ limited shares of support, the survey suggests that a runoff on June 7 is probable. That outcome would align with recent Peruvian voting patterns: no candidate has won outright in the first round since the end of the last century. The country’s presidency has seen rapid turnover in recent years, with eight presidents since 2018, and four former leaders currently incarcerated.
Political turbulence intensified recently when an unpopular right-wing-controlled Congress removed the nation’s most recent president last month after revelations that he held secret meetings with a Chinese businessman. Such developments feed into the electorate’s uncertainty as the campaign progresses.
Datum’s polling window ran from February 27 to March 4, during which the firm found that over 38% of voters were undecided or had chosen not to vote. Urpi Torrado, the CEO of Datum, said many voters who will cast ballots are likely to make their final decisions only in the final week before the election.
Keiko Fujimori, who is on her fourth presidential bid, is the daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, who was imprisoned for 16 years for crimes against humanity - including the use of death squads during his decade-long tenure. Rafael Lopez Aliaga, a former mayor of Lima described as ultra-conservative, has adopted the nickname "Porky" and leaned into that persona during his campaign due to a resemblance to a U.S. cartoon pig.
A separate Datum poll from two weeks earlier showed Lopez Aliaga leading with 13.4% and Fujimori at 9.7%, illustrating the fluidity of voter preferences in a fragmented field. Beyond the two front-runners, several other contenders register modest levels of support, each polling at about 5% according to the survey.
Those candidates include leftist Alfonso Lopez-Chau, a former central bank director; millionaire businessman Cesar Acuna; Carlos Alvarez, a well-known comedian and impersonator of former presidents; and retired general and former intelligence chief Wolfgang Grozo. With support dispersed across many names and a substantial undecided bloc, the first-round vote appears unlikely to deliver a decisive victor.
What the poll shows
- Two right-wing candidates lead with about 10% each in a field of 36 hopefuls.
- More than a third of respondents are undecided or plan not to vote.
- Fragmented support increases the probability of a June 7 runoff.