As Hungary approaches its April 12 parliamentary election, a recent Median poll indicates the centre-right Tisza party has increased its lead over Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz. The survey, conducted between February 18 and 23 and published on hvg.hu, reports Tisza ahead by 20 percentage points among decided voters, an increase from a 12-point margin recorded in January.
Tisza, led by Peter Magyar and founded in 2024, drew the support of 55% of decided voters in February, up from 51% the previous month. Fidesz's backing among decided voters declined to 35% from 39% in January, Median found. When the poll is extrapolated to the entire population rather than only decided respondents, Tisza's support stands at 42% while Fidesz is supported by 31%.
Median's researchers noted that Tisza "has made up for its loss of momentum in the autumn and is once again leading Fidesz with a confidence similar to that of last summer." The poll attributes the movement to shifting voter preferences despite a series of government announcements intended to appeal to the electorate after three years of economic stagnation.
Beyond the two main parties, Median reports that the far-right Our Homeland party is the only other group with a realistic prospect of entering parliament, securing 6% of decided voters in the February survey, up from 5% in January. Under Hungary's rules, parties must surpass a 5% threshold to win seats.
Median has a strong track record for election forecasting in Hungary. The pollster correctly predicted the scale of Prime Minister Orban's victory in the last nationwide vote four years ago, while slightly overstating opposition support in that forecast.
Although most recent polls signal a Tisza advantage, Fidesz points to other surveys suggesting it remains on course for victory. Opponents counter that those polls are often conducted by institutes with financial or personal ties to the ruling party.
At a campaign event in Sumeg last week, Prime Minister Orban said that surveys indicate Fidesz could win in 65 to 70 of Hungary's 106 single-member constituencies, compared with 87 such seats secured four years ago, but that this would still be sufficient to retain power. Hungary's parliament comprises 199 members, with 93 elected from party lists and 106 elected directly from constituencies.
Election context and stakes
The April 12 contest pits the veteran nationalist prime minister, who is seeking a fifth consecutive term to extend a 16-year hold on power, against a challenger that, according to this poll, has consolidated a lead among decided voters. The outcome will determine the composition of the 199-seat National Assembly, split between proportional list seats and constituency winners.