MANCHESTER, England, Feb 26 - Keir Starmer confronts a consequential electoral test as residents of Gorton and Denton in Greater Manchester vote in a by-election that polls rate as too close to call. The contest pits the Labour Party against the populist Reform UK and the left-leaning Green Party in what party strategists describe as a three-way race.
Starmer made a surprise visit to the constituency on Monday as Labour intensified efforts to frame the ballot as a straightforward choice between Labour and Reform, whose leader is the Brexit campaign figure Nigel Farage. Labour campaigners have repeatedly warned that votes cast for the Greens could inadvertently transfer to Reform, arguing that a Green vote in effect amounts to "a vote for Reform."
In remarks issued ahead of polling, Starmer sought to draw a sharp contrast between his party and Reform, saying the choice "could not be more stark." He expanded on that characterization in a statement, declaring: "Driving down the cost of living with Labour or driving a wedge between communities under Reform. Moving forwards together, or opening up anger and division that holds our country back."
Labour comfortably won this seat as part of its landslide performance in the 2024 general election, but the incumbent MP recently announced he would step down, prompting the by-election. Polling suggests Labour, Reform and the Greens may each secure roughly similar shares of the vote, heightening the uncertainty over which candidate will take the seat.
The vote comes at a sensitive time for Starmer, who has faced scrutiny over multiple policy reversals and his decision to appoint veteran Labour figure Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington. Mandelson has been the focus of renewed attention because of his known associations with the late Jeffrey Epstein, a detail that has intensified criticism of the appointment. Mandelson has denied any wrongdoing.
These developments have been added to a list of missteps and policy U-turns cited by critics within and outside Labour, prompting some party members to urge Starmer to step down. Starmer, who is 63 years old, has vowed to remain in his role and contest the challenges.
Locally, Labour has also been criticised for its candidate selection process. Party leadership was blamed last month for preventing Andy Burnham, the popular Manchester mayor, from standing as Labour's candidate in the by-election. Instead, Labour selected Angeliki Stogia, a local councillor, to run.
Stogia will face Reform's candidate, Matt Goodwin, an academic and author, and the Green Party's candidate, Hannah Spencer, also a local councillor. The campaign has featured accusations of foul play tied to the selection process and the wider tensions surrounding the contest.
For Starmer, losing a seat that has returned Labour representatives to Westminster for generations would represent a significant setback, particularly if the Greens were to secure victory. Labour lawmakers, however, caution that a single by-election defeat would not necessarily be decisive for the party's future.
Instead, colleagues point to the elections in May as the more consequential test, when local elections across several English councils and the Welsh and Scottish assemblies will take place. Those contests are being seen within the party as the next substantial measure of public support.
Summary - The Gorton and Denton by-election is a tightly fought three-way contest between Labour, Reform UK and the Greens. The result will be a first electoral gauge of Keir Starmer's leadership following criticism linked to a high-profile ambassadorial appointment and recent policy reversals. Local candidate selection disputes and polling that shows near-equal support for the three parties have intensified the stakes.