S&P Global Ratings on Thursday affirmed Kazakhstan's long-term sovereign rating at 'BBB-' and its short-term rating at 'A-3', while keeping the long-term outlook at positive. The agency also maintained the transfer and convertibility assessment at 'BBB' and upheld the 'kzAAA' national scale rating for the country.
The positive outlook, S&P said, rests on an expectation that the Kazakh government will press ahead with fiscal consolidation over the next two to three years and retain substantial liquid asset buffers. The rating agency highlighted a package of measures intended to support fiscal strengthening, including stricter fiscal rules and efforts to broaden non-oil tax revenue sources.
S&P projects Kazakhstan's general government deficit to narrow to a range of 1.5% to 2.5% of GDP over the next three years, down from an estimated 3.7% in 2025. That improvement is expected to be driven by increases in value-added tax and personal income tax revenues, more streamlined tax administration, and tighter spending controls introduced by a new tax code approved in July 2025.
On the growth outlook, the agency expects real GDP expansion to ease to about 4% in 2026-2028 from an estimated 6.5% in 2025. S&P noted that oil output is forecast to fall by roughly 4% in 2026 to 96 million tons per year, down from 98.9 million tons. The decline follows attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline in February 2025 and on the CPC oil terminal in November 2025. S&P also cited waning fiscal stimulus, tighter consumer credit conditions, and elevated interest rates as ongoing drags on private sector demand.
Regarding public sector liquidity, the ratings firm expects government liquid assets to stabilize at about 20% to 21% of GDP over the next four years, compared with roughly 25% in 2023. The National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan's foreign assets stood at $63.9 billion in 2025, supported by high investment income, S&P noted.
The agency warned that lower oil prices would weigh on Kazakhstan's fiscal performance in 2026. In its baseline assumptions, S&P used Brent crude prices of $60 per barrel for 2026 and $65 per barrel for 2027-2029, compared with about $69 per barrel in 2025.
S&P expects the current account deficit to widen to 4.4% of GDP in 2026 from 3.8% in 2025, attributing the deterioration to weaker oil prices and reduced oil export volumes. At the same time, gross foreign currency reserves rose to $65.4 billion on Dec. 31, 2025 from about $45.8 billion on Dec. 31, 2024, a change S&P linked largely to favorable gold prices. Approximately 72% of the National Bank of Kazakhstan's foreign reserves are held in gold, the agency noted.
In sum, S&P's affirmation and positive outlook reflect confidence that Kazakhstan will continue fiscal tightening and maintain large liquid buffers, while acknowledging near-term pressures from lower oil output, subdued private demand, and oil price risks.