Summary: A recent Datum Internacional survey points to tightening competition in Peru's presidential race, with a left-wing candidate making gains against two right-wing frontrunners in the weeks before the first-round vote on April 12. The poll also highlights a large pool of undecided voters and provides context on the country's economic performance.
Poll details
The Datum Internacional poll, fielded March 6-10 and released on America Television, shows Alfonso Lopez Chau, an economist and former central bank director running for Juntos por el Peru, at 6.5% support. That marks an increase from 5.1% in the prior survey.
Leading the field are Rafael Lopez Aliaga with 11.4% and Keiko Fujimori with 10.9%, according to the same survey. Those figures fall within the poll's margin of error of +/-2.5%, which could imply a technical tie among the top contenders.
Retired air force general and former intelligence director Wolfgang Crozo is in fourth place at 5.1%.
The share of respondents who are undecided or say they will not vote declined to 36.7% from 38.5% in the prior poll, though it remains elevated compared with the 18% recorded at a similar point before the 2021 presidential election.
Political timetable and expectations
Peru will hold its presidential election on April 12. Given the distribution of support reflected in the poll, no first-round winner is expected, and a run-off vote is anticipated in June. The incoming president is set to take office at the end of July.
Peru has experienced sustained political turnover in recent years, registering eight presidents since 2018.
Economic backdrop
Official figures cited in the poll report show Peru's economy expanded 3.54% year-on-year in January, a performance supported by increased production of copper, zinc, gold and silver. The country remains the world’s third-largest copper producer and has an economy that is heavily reliant on mining.
Analysis considerations
The poll indicates shifting voter preferences with a substantial share of the electorate still undecided. From a market and sector perspective, the mining-reliant nature of the economy is a salient factor referenced in the data, given the reported uptick in metal production in January.
Keiko Fujimori is running for president for a fourth time; she is the daughter of the late ex-president Alberto Fujimori, who was imprisoned 16 years for human rights abuses.
Conclusion
The survey suggests a competitive and unsettled presidential contest with a sizeable bloc of undecided voters. With the first round scheduled for April 12 and a runoff expected in June, the next month of campaigning will be critical in shaping final voter decisions.