A senior official representing a Paris-based Iranian opposition group said on Thursday that an external bombing campaign by the United States and Israel would not be enough to unseat Iran’s clerical leadership, and that a popular uprising backed by resistance within the country would be required to achieve that outcome.
Mohammad Mohaddesin, who oversees foreign policy for the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), spoke at a news conference and pointed to the scale of recent fighting as evidence. He said almost two weeks of bombing have killed around 2,000 people in Iran including supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and damaged much of its military and security apparatus. He added that Iran has answered with its own strikes, a response that has disrupted global energy markets and transport, spread the conflict more widely across the Middle East, and coincided with a tightening of control by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has warned it will crush any unrest.
Mohaddesin framed the lessons of the past and present conflicts in stark terms. "The 12-day war in June, and the current war, now in its 12th day, proved that bombings cannot overthrow the regime," he said. He stressed that armed forces on the ground, regardless of size, would not be effective without the support of the Iranian populace. "Even if you have 50,000 armed soldiers on the ground, you need the support of Iranian people. You need a popular uprising. The combination of this 50,000 or 20,000 or any other number with a popular uprising, then you have this power to overthrow the regime," Mohaddesin said.
On the question of foreign ground forces, Mohaddesin said he did not consider deployment of U.S. ground troops realistic. He also acknowledged limits to his own group’s ability to effect change on its own, noting that the NCRI cannot single-handedly bring down the system.
The NCRI, which is also known by its Farsi name Mujahideen-e-Khalq, was on the United States list of designated terrorist organisations until 2012. It remains banned inside Iran, and Mohaddesin said it is unclear how much support the group currently has within the country. Despite those limitations, the NCRI is, along with its rival monarchists who back Reza Pahlavi—the exiled son of the toppled shah—among the few opposition formations able to mobilize supporters abroad.
Mohaddesin said he expects mass protests similar to those that erupted in January and were later suppressed to re-emerge once bombing stops, and that these renewed demonstrations could eventually change the balance of power. "I cannot say how many months or a year, but ... this is the track of overthrowing the regime," he said.
Separately, Mohaddesin’s remarks echoed an aim that Israeli officials have publicly stated: weakening Iran’s security apparatus to create conditions in which Iranians themselves can determine their political future. The situation, as described at the news conference, combines intense military action, heavy casualties, significant damage to security and military institutions, and a political landscape in which opposition groups in exile claim they could play a role if internal popular uprisings resume.