Moody's Ratings elevated Uzbekistan's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to Ba2 from Ba3 and revised the outlook from positive to stable. The ratings agency also upgraded the ratings on senior unsecured medium-term note (MTN) programs to (P)Ba2 from (P)Ba3.
The upgrade reflects what Moody's describes as sustained enhancements in Uzbekistan's institutional and policy framework accompanied by stronger economic and fiscal trajectories. Real gross domestic product expanded at an average pace of approximately 6.9% over the past three years, accelerating to 7.7% in 2025 and to 8.7% in the first quarter of 2026.
Fiscal metrics improved notably, with the fiscal deficit narrowing to about 2% of GDP in 2025 from above 4% in 2023. Moody's attributes part of this fiscal consolidation to energy subsidy reform that lowered gas-sector subsidies to 0.3% of GDP from 1.4%.
In May 2026, the Uzbekistan National Investment Fund completed a dual listing that raised roughly $691 million and drew strong participation from international investors. Moody's said the transaction illustrates the authorities' intent to reduce the states direct role in the economy and to bolster corporate governance.
Looking ahead, Moody's anticipates fiscal deficits will remain below 3% of GDP during 2026-28, which should help stabilize the government debt ratio at around 35% of GDP. The stable outlook reflects Moody's assessment that upside and downside risks are broadly balanced at the Ba2 level.
Growth is projected to moderate to a range of 6.1%-6.3% over 2026-27, supported by ongoing structural reforms, favorable demographics, and continued diversification of the economy. At the same time, Moody's highlighted that contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises and public-private partnerships remain sizable at roughly 25% of GDP.
The banking sector remains dominated by state-owned banks, although the share of preferential lending has declined significantly, falling to 19.2% of total loans at end-2025 from 39% in 2020. In addition to the sovereign rating actions, Moody's raised the country ceilings: the local-currency ceiling to Baa3 from Ba1 and the foreign-currency ceiling to Ba2 from Ba3.
External vulnerability indicators reported by Moody's show external debt at 56.6% of GDP in 2025 and import cover of about 17 months.
Key takeaways
- Moody's upgraded Uzbekistan's long-term and senior unsecured ratings to Ba2 and set the outlook to stable.
- Economic momentum has been strong, with average real GDP growth of roughly 6.9% over the past three years and faster rates in 2025 and Q1 2026.
- Fiscal consolidation has progressed, driven in part by energy subsidy reform and a successful $691 million dual listing of the National Investment Fund.
Contextual notes
- Moody's expects deficits under 3% of GDP in 2026-28 and a stable debt-to-GDP ratio around 35%.
- Contingent liabilities from SOEs and PPPs and the dominance of state-owned banks remain material considerations for credit risk.