Israeli leaders, in confidential deliberations, have acknowledged there is no guarantee that the current war will precipitate the collapse of Iran's clerical ruling structure, a senior Israeli official said. That assessment comes even as a high-intensity U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign has killed Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with a number of senior military commanders.
Officials argue that while the strikes have inflicted major losses on Iran's leadership and damaged homes and public buildings - fueling anger among many Iranians - there has been scant evidence of a popular uprising during the bombardment. With missiles impacting Tehran and other urban centers, and Iranian authorities warning they will use deadly force against anyone who takes to the streets, potential demonstrators appear deterred from publicly protesting until hostilities conclude.
Two Israeli officials stated that, contrary to public comments by U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting the war could finish soon, Israel does not assess Washington is close to directing a halt to the campaign. The Israeli view reflects caution about any expectation that the battered regime will immediately disintegrate.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on the day the joint air campaign began, said: "Our joint action will create the conditions for the brave Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands." He singled out Iran's main ethnic and linguistic minorities - the Kurds, Baluchis and Arabs - comments that were read as hinting that the United States or Israel might seek to encourage unrest among those groups. Yet in a subsequent statement, Netanyahu reiterated that helping Iranians "cast off the yoke of tyranny" was an aspiration but that ultimately "it is up to them" - a remark that tacitly acknowledged a popular uprising did not appear imminent.
Neither Israel nor the United States has publicly issued a combined statement defining explicit, unified war aims or the benchmarks that would signify an appropriate moment to end military operations. President Trump described the campaign as "very complete, pretty much" on one occasion, while the White House later said the war would end only when the president determined its objectives had been met and Iran had reached an unconditional surrender.
In a closed-door briefing with foreign diplomats, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar declined to set a timetable for the campaign, aligning with the government's view that the United States was not ready to instruct a conclusion. Saar acknowledged that Iran's ruling system could survive the strikes but said he was confident it would collapse in time, according to those briefed on the session. Speaking to reporters, Saar said the war would continue until Israel and the U.S. judged it appropriate to stop, but that Israel did not seek an "endless war."
Assaf Orion, a former head of strategy with the Israeli military, described weakening Iran's military capabilities as a more direct, measurable objective than trying to engineer regime change. "Creating conditions for regime change is indirect and hence more difficult to fathom," he said, adding that while the current military campaign appears to have been planned for weeks, any popular uprising against Iran's ruling system might take months or even years to materialize.
On the ground in Iran, the security environment has stiffened. Iran's police chief, Ahmadreza Radan, warned that "anyone taking to the streets at the enemy's request will be confronted as an enemy, not a protester. All our security forces have their fingers on the trigger." That posture, combined with the ongoing bombardment, has kept the streets largely quiet despite deep public discontent with the government.
Many Iranians remain angry and some reportedly celebrated the death of Khamenei, whose forces had recently crushed anti-government demonstrations that left thousands dead. Nonetheless, there have been no signs of renewed mass protests since the onset of the war. "I hate this regime. I want it to go, but under bombardment there are no streets left to protest in," said Ali, 26, from Tehran.
Life in Tehran continues to some extent: banks, petrol stations and shops remain open, although hours have been shortened and fuel is being rationed more tightly. Government offices are operating. Residents report continuous bombing. One Tehran resident, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: "Every day and every night there is bombing. My apartment building and its windows shake." The same resident added that, despite anger toward the regime, a sense of national pride and hostility toward figures such as Reza Pahlavi, Trump and Netanyahu is growing among some segments of the population.
Beyond immediate security concerns, the bombardment has destroyed airports, ports and other pieces of civilian infrastructure. Those losses complicate any effort by Iran's leadership to revive an already stagnant economy that had been a source of significant public anger. A university teacher in Tehran, who declined to be named, suggested Iran's authorities may prefer the war to continue because a cessation of hostilities could allow economic grievances to resurface into mass protests. "Iran prefers the war to continue because if it ends, protests will start due to economic problems and shortcomings that the war has also worsened," the teacher said.
The picture that emerges from Israeli closed-door assessments and reports from inside Iran is one of uncertainty: a military campaign that has severely degraded leadership and infrastructure but has not yet produced the broad popular uprising some had hoped would hasten regime change. Nor have political leaders from Israel and the United States publicly agreed on clearly defined end states for the campaign, leaving the duration and ultimate outcome uncertain.
Implications for transport and trade
Damage to airports and ports directly affects the movement of goods and people, adding pressure to shipping, aviation and logistics networks. Fuel rationing and damaged infrastructure can slow freight flows and raise costs for domestic distribution. Financial sectors may also be strained by disrupted banking operations in urban centers. These effects combine to deepen economic pain for civilians and could influence the timing and character of any future unrest.