WASHINGTON - Officials with direct knowledge of U.S. intelligence reporting told Reuters that President Donald Trump’s assertion that Iran is "working on missiles that will soon reach" the United States is not borne out by available intelligence and appears to be an exaggeration. The comment was made by the president during his recent State of the Union address as part of an argument to the American public that the United States might need to consider strikes against Iran.
Three sources familiar with intelligence reporting said the claim is not supported by U.S. intelligence assessments. Two of those sources added that there have been no revisions to an unclassified 2025 assessment from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency that concluded Iran could require as much as a decade or more - until about 2035 - to translate its current satellite-launch technology into a militarily credible intercontinental ballistic missile.
The reporting from those familiar with the intelligence material raises questions about the factual basis for part of the president’s public case in favor of potential military action against the Islamic Republic. The sources characterized the president’s statement as exaggerated relative to what intelligence reporting indicates.
Requests for comment directed at the White House were declined. The absence of an official response leaves the public record without confirmation from the administration about whether the intelligence community’s unclassified assessment aligns with the president’s public remarks.
Context from the public record
During his address to Congress, the president argued that Tehran was advancing missile work that would allow its weapons to reach the United States. The three intelligence-connected sources who reviewed U.S. reporting counter that assertion, and two explicitly cited continued alignment with the unclassified 2025 Defense Intelligence Agency assessment on the timeline for a militarily viable ICBM derived from Iran’s space-launch vehicles.
The sources' accounts do not indicate any newly declassified intelligence or an updated consensus that contradicts the DIA projection of a path to ICBM capability extending toward 2035.
Reporting limitations: The description here reflects the assessments and remarks of the named sources and the existence of the unclassified 2025 DIA assessment as referenced by those sources. The White House declined to comment on the matter.