SINGAPORE, May 28 - A major defence think tank has warned that a military clash between the United States and China over Taiwan carries a risk of nuclear escalation, with both militaries likely to undertake broad operations targeting each other’s command and communications infrastructure, the group said on Thursday.
The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) issued a 156-page strategic assessment ahead of the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s largest regional defence conference, which convenes in Singapore from May 29 to 31. The report cautions that the Asia-Pacific sits at the centre of a renewed nuclear arms race.
The IISS drew attention to two parallel trends it says are eroding strategic stability: regional and externally interested states expanding nuclear arsenals, and non-nuclear states acquiring longer-range conventional strike systems. Together, the think tank said, those developments are challenging existing deterrence frameworks and the limits of conventional conflict.
The assessment identifies Taiwan as a potential flashpoint set to dominate discussions at the Shangri-La Dialogue, alongside the conflict in Iran and debates about U.S. commitments in the region. The informal, three-day gathering brings together ministers, senior military officers, intelligence chiefs, diplomats, analysts and defence industry representatives.
Earlier this month, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing. The summit prompted questions in Taipei about Washington’s resolve to assist the self-governing island in its defence, the IISS noted. Beijing continues to assert its claim of sovereignty over Taiwan and has not ruled out force, while also maintaining that it prefers "peaceful reunification." Taiwan’s government rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claim.
Since the summit, the IISS says Beijing has intensified pressure on Taiwan, increasing the military presence around the island and keeping Taipei on heightened alert for further moves. The assessment warns that a Taiwan conflict would draw massive military activity from both sides with different operational aims: China to keep U.S. forces and allies at bay, and the United States to strengthen Taiwan’s capacity to endure and resist.
"Conflict with China would risk escalation, potentially to a nuclear level, given the strategic importance of Taiwan to Beijing," the IISS writes. The paper adds that there is little public evidence both militaries appreciate the necessary guard rails or have mutually understood rules of engagement that would prevent each from targeting critical command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes.
Those command and communications nodes figure prominently in the assessment because they are key enablers for conventional force coordination, nuclear command and early warning systems. The IISS says the absence of well-established constraints on targeting these systems raises the prospect that a conventional confrontation could cross thresholds that lead to nuclear response options being considered.
On the question of nuclear stockpiles, the report reiterates that the United States and Russia retain much larger arsenals than China, but it also highlights the rapid pace of Chinese expansion and modernization. A Pentagon report cited in the assessment, released in December, concluded China is on track to field 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. Independent estimates referenced by the IISS put active warhead counts at about 4,400 for Russia, 3,700 for the United States and 620 for China.
The IISS assessment will be aired as senior defence officials gather in Singapore. U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth is scheduled to speak at the conference on Saturday. China has not yet confirmed whether its Defence Minister, Dong Jun, will attend.
Context and implications
The IISS frames its findings as part of a broader shift in regional military doctrines and technological investments that complicate crisis management. If both nuclear and long-range conventional strike capabilities continue to expand, the think tank warns, strategic stability may become harder to preserve in future crises over Taiwan or other flashpoints.
The assessment underscores uncertainties around rules of engagement and escalation management between the U.S. and China, and it sets the stage for discussion among the diverse international audience expected at the Shangri-La Dialogue.