Geneva - Negotiations over potential international limits on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) have reached a pivotal moment, according to the chair of the United Nations-backed expert group overseeing the discussions. From this week until the mandate expires in September, 128 states will deliberate on whether to accept by consensus a non-binding text intended to create space for possible future talks on bans and regulatory measures for LAWS.
Robert in den Bosch, the Dutch Disarmament Ambassador in Geneva and Chair of the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) Group of Governmental Experts on LAWS, said progress is urgent. "If we wait then it almost gets to a stage where you’re too late... We will be overtaken by technological developments," in den Bosch said.
Since 2014, more than a hundred states party to the CCW have converged in the Swiss city to debate options ranging from outright bans on LAWS that would fail to comply with existing international law to regulatory approaches for other systems. While there is broad agreement that international humanitarian law - IHL - applies to LAWS, the chair noted that concrete, internationally binding standards tailored to these systems remain effectively non-existent.
The discussions in Geneva centre on a Rolling Text that proposes the inclusion of "context appropriate human judgment and control" to ensure that systems capable of "identify, select and engage" targets without human intervention would operate in compliance with IHL. That phrasing is intended as a bridge between states pressing for stricter limits and those who contend that current legal frameworks suffice.
Several states, including Russia and the United States, oppose the negotiation of new legally binding instruments, arguing that existing laws already provide adequate regulation. Other delegations have argued that additional rules are necessary to address perceived accountability gaps within IHL, which places obligations on states and individuals rather than on machines.
There are rising concerns about the deployment of AI-assisted semi-autonomous weapons, which have been reported in conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan, Gaza, and in . These developments add urgency to discussions about how to craft measures that can keep pace with technological advances.
In den Bosch said that although U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has set a timeline for agreeing a legally binding instrument on LAWS this year, that deadline is likely to be missed. He stressed that the Secretary-General's timeline lies outside the mandate of the Geneva talks, and noted that the difficulties in reaching consensus on even non-binding elements underline how challenging progress will be.
The broader diplomatic environment surrounding the talks is fraught. Geopolitical tensions and recent European withdrawals from the landmine ban treaty, prompted by concerns about Russian threats, complicate efforts to secure cohesive positions. The Review Conference of the CCW in November could decide to open formal negotiations on a binding protocol after the Geneva sessions conclude, but in den Bosch warned that without agreement in Geneva some countries might seek to pursue a separate treaty process elsewhere.
Summary
Geneva negotiations are at a critical point as 128 states consider a non-binding Rolling Text aimed at shaping future discussions on prohibitions and controls for LAWS. The chair of the CCW expert group warned that delaying action risks falling behind rapid technological change, while divergent views among states make consensus difficult.
Key points
- 128 states will discuss the adoption by consensus of a non-binding Rolling Text before the mandate ends in September - sectors affected: defense, technology.
- The Rolling Text proposes "context appropriate human judgment and control" for systems that "identify, select and engage" targets, aiming to align LAWS with international humanitarian law - sectors affected: defense, AI development.
- Significant geopolitical tensions and opposing positions from countries such as Russia and the United States complicate the prospects for new legally binding instruments - sectors affected: defense contractors, governments.
Risks and uncertainties
- Failure to reach consensus in Geneva could delay the establishment of clear international standards, leaving defense and AI technology sectors without uniform rules.
- Missed deadlines for a legally binding instrument, such as the U.N. Secretary-General's timeline, highlight uncertainty in the diplomatic process and potential regulatory gaps that could affect military procurement and R&D decisions.
- Geopolitical friction and treaty withdrawals create the possibility that some states may pursue alternate treaty routes, producing fragmented regulation that could complicate multinational defense cooperation.