An Ipsos Peru opinion poll taken on May 16-17 and published on May 20 shows Keiko Fujimori holding a narrow lead over Roberto Sanchez ahead of the June 7 presidential runoff.
The survey finds Fujimori, the right-wing candidate and daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, would receive 39% of the vote in a head-to-head contest compared with 35% for Sanchez, who represents the left. Fujimori captured first place in the first round on April 12 with 17% of votes; Sanchez advanced to the runoff with 12%.
Earlier polling from Ipsos, released in late April, had shown the two candidates tied at 38% each. The new figures therefore represent a modest shift in voter intentions toward Fujimori since that previous survey.
The poll also recorded measures of opposition and voter disengagement. Opposition to Fujimori fell to 44% in May from 48% in April, while opposition to Sanchez remained at 40% according to Ipsos. The survey found 26% of respondents said they would either not vote for any candidate or would cast a blank ballot. Ipsos reported a margin of error of +/-2.8% at a 95% confidence level.
Economic messaging has emerged as a central factor in campaign dynamics. Pedro Francke, who was named this week to lead the team drafting Sanchez’s economic plan, sought to reassure markets by saying: "We are going to respect private property. Things like breaking contracts just because somebody felt like it - that shouldn’t happen." The article notes Francke has tried to distance himself from Sanchez’s more radical proposals, which include a new constitution and revisions to mining contracts.
Market participants and analysts in turn view Fujimori as more likely to support disciplined macroeconomic policy. Fujimori’s campaign has emphasized restoring public order and combating crime and corruption, positions that have been highlighted alongside her perceived market-friendly stance.
The two candidates are scheduled to face each other in a televised debate on May 31. Their technical teams are set to meet for a separate debate on May 24.
While the poll indicates a lead for Fujimori, the share of undecided or blank-vote respondents and remaining opposition levels illustrate continuing electoral fluidity in the run-up to the June 7 vote.