Fitch Ratings confirmed Gabon’s sovereign credit scores on Friday, leaving the Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at 'CCC-' and the Long-Term Local-Currency rating at 'CC'. The ratings, the agency said, reflect large refinancing requirements in the near term, a narrow set of financing sources, a high dependence on volatile hydrocarbon revenues, a rising debt-to-GDP ratio and persistent shortcomings in public finance management.
Fitch calculated Gabon’s fiscal deficit on a commitment basis at 12.2% of GDP for 2025. The rating agency attributed the bulk of the widening shortfall to a sharp rise in capital spending, which reached 11% of GDP in 2025 compared with a five-year annual average of 2.7% in 2024. Part of the fiscal gap was covered through a substantial build-up of arrears equal to 4.8% of GDP, leaving a cash deficit of 7.5% of GDP.
Looking ahead, Fitch expects fiscal deficits of roughly 6% of GDP in both 2026 and 2027, reflecting an assumption that some of the planned capital expenditures may be under-executed relative to ambitious targets.
On the debt-servicing front, the agency estimates domestic amortisations at 11.6% of GDP in 2026 and 15.6% in 2027, figures that include short-term instruments. External amortisations are assessed at 2.7% of GDP for 2026 and 3.7% for 2027. Fitch anticipates that the bulk of net funding needs will be met via external borrowing, with the $1 billion commercial loan from Trafigura, announced in April 2026, expected to be the principal component of that external borrowing.
Fitch’s calculations show government debt rising to 81.1% of GDP in 2025 from 72.0% in 2024. The firm projects debt will remain broadly stable at about 80.6% of GDP in 2026, as robust nominal GDP growth driven by oil production counterbalances the large fiscal deficit. However, the agency forecasts public debt will climb to 87.6% of GDP in 2027 under an assumed scenario of lower oil prices. The stock of arrears formally recognised by authorities increased to 3.8% of GDP at end-2025 from 2.1% at end-2024.
Gabon formally requested an International Monetary Fund programme in March 2026. To support transparency and facilitate discussions with the IMF, the Ministry of Finance has initiated an audit of public debt, with the audit scheduled for completion by end-July 2026.
Real GDP growth slowed to 3.2% in 2025 from 3.4% in 2024, a deceleration the agency links to a 2.9% contraction in oil output.
Context and implications
Fitch’s assessment underscores how a concentrated revenue base and a surge in capital spending can rapidly stretch public finances, particularly when arrears are used to temper immediate cash shortfalls. The projected pattern of high domestic amortisations in 2026-27 coupled with continued reliance on external financing highlights the country’s refinancing sensitivity.