Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Republic of Congo's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating and senior unsecured rating at CCC+ and assigned a Recovery Rating of RR4, while removing the country from Under Criteria Observation. The ratings agency reiterated that it does not assign outlooks to sovereigns rated CCC+ or below.
The agency said the affirmation reflects a combination of structural and near-term pressures: weak public financial management, a high government debt burden, pronounced dependence on oil revenues, low governance indicators and limited access to regional markets. According to Fitch, these factors have contributed to poor debt servicing records and recurring arrears.
Fitch pointed to a number of recent operations as evidence of these weaknesses, including a debt operation in October 2024 that the agency regarded as a distressed debt exchange, and a 2022 restructuring of external commercial liabilities with oil traders. The ratings agency estimated domestic arrears to the private sector at about 13% of GDP at end-2025. In addition, external arrears to official creditors accumulated to an estimated 1.6% of GDP during 2025.
To address near-term maturities, Congo issued eurobonds through private placements in November and December 2025, raising USD 930 million to repay regional debt coming due at the end of 2025 and in early 2026. Fitch noted that part of this issuance is expected to be refinanced by a new USD 700 million external issuance scheduled for early February.
Looking ahead, Fitch anticipates that the government is likely to seek an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme after the country's elections on 15 March 2026, with any associated funding expected to materialize in 2026 or 2027. The timing and scale of such support were presented by the agency as likely contingent on post-election developments.
On the macroeconomic front, Fitch estimated that economic growth accelerated to 3.0% in 2025, up from 2.1% in 2024, driven by a rebound in oil production. The agency projects further strengthening of growth in 2026-2027, underpinned by expansion in the oil and gas sector and the start-up of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) output. Fitch expects Eni Congo to commence production in 2026, raising total LNG production to 3.0 million tonnes per annum by 2027 from 0.6 million tonnes previously.
On public finances, the ratings agency judged that government debt was expected to decline to about 87% of GDP in 2025, which remains above the B/C/D median of 69.6%, with further reductions projected through 2027. Fitch also estimated that the overall fiscal surplus would narrow to around 0.5% of GDP in 2025. The narrowing was attributed to lower oil revenues as global prices fell, together with higher spending driven by security needs and election-related transfers.
Context and implications
The rating action underscores a balance between signs of macroeconomic recovery tied to oil and gas developments and persistent fiscal and governance challenges that keep sovereign risk elevated. Recent financing steps - including the private placement eurobonds and the planned refinancing - address immediate maturities but leave refinancing and arrears dynamics as central variables for Congo's credit profile.