World February 10, 2026

EU Weighs Major Changes to Free CO2 Permit Regime in ETS Overhaul

Internal document outlines three reform paths for the Emissions Trading System that would alter how industries receive or buy carbon permits

By Priya Menon
EU Weighs Major Changes to Free CO2 Permit Regime in ETS Overhaul

The European Union is considering revisions to the system that currently grants some free CO2 permits to industries, as part of a broader redesign of the bloc’s Emissions Trading System (ETS). An internal presentation lays out three potential approaches: ending free permits in favor of phased permit purchases, tying free permits to low-carbon investments, or largely keeping the existing framework. The moves aim to rebalance pollution costs and industrial competitiveness while reshaping how permits are allocated through at least 2034.

Key Points

  • The ETS requires power plants and industries to purchase CO2 permits when they pollute, and the EU is reassessing free permit allocations as part of a larger ETS redesign.
  • Three options are on the table: full removal of free permits with a phased increase in purchased coverage through 2034; conditioning free permits on investments in low-carbon technology; or keeping the current free-permit system largely intact.
  • Sectors directly affected include power generation and industrial emitters; market impacts would center on carbon permit costs and industrial competitiveness.

Overview

The European Union is reviewing possible revisions to the mechanism that provides free carbon dioxide permits to certain industries as part of a comprehensive redesign of its Emissions Trading System (ETS), according to an internal document. The ETS is the bloc’s principal climate policy and requires power plants and industrial firms to purchase CO2 permits when they emit greenhouse gases.


Three reform options under consideration

The internal presentation sets out three distinct options for changing how free permits are handled:

  • Full elimination with phased buy-in: Under the first option, free CO2 permits would be removed entirely. Instead, industries would be required to buy and surrender permits covering a portion of their emissions, with that covered portion increasing gradually until 2034.
  • Conditional free permits: A second approach would allow free permits to remain but only on condition that recipient industries make investments in low-carbon technologies.
  • Maintain current system: The third path would largely preserve the present free permit arrangement with minimal changes.

Rationale and context

The document notes that the current free-permit mechanism reduces pollution-related costs for industrial emitters and is intended to help them compete with foreign companies that do not face emissions payments. The proposed changes would adjust how those competitive protections are delivered, through either removal, conditionality linked to investment, or continuation of the status quo.


What this means going forward

The options outlined in the internal presentation map a range of potential policy directions for the ETS. Any movement toward elimination or conditional allocation would alter the cost exposure of covered industries and could change investment signals for low-carbon technologies. The timeline mentioned for the phased increase in permit purchase obligations extends to 2034.

Risks

  • Uncertainty over which reform option will be selected creates planning and investment risks for energy-intensive industries and their suppliers.
  • If free permits are removed or made conditional, affected industries could face higher near-term compliance costs, affecting margins and capital allocation decisions in manufacturing and heavy industry.
  • Maintaining the current system preserves existing competitive protections, but it may limit incentives for accelerated investment in low-carbon technologies among permit recipients.

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