World March 17, 2026

EU Adjusts Strategy to Constant U.S. Unpredictability, Foreign Policy Chief Says

Kaja Kallas says Brussels is now factoring in erratic U.S. actions one year after President Trump's return to the White House

By Caleb Monroe
EU Adjusts Strategy to Constant U.S. Unpredictability, Foreign Policy Chief Says

In Brussels on March 17, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the European Union has begun to take the United States' recent unpredictability into account, one year after President Donald Trump returned to the White House. Kallas said the bloc has adopted a calmer posture by expecting unexpected U.S. moves and remaining focused.

Key Points

  • EU officials are now explicitly accounting for the United States' unpredictability in their planning and posture - sectors affected include diplomacy and international relations.
  • Brussels intends to adopt a calmer operational stance by expecting unexpected U.S. actions and remaining focused - this can influence government decision-making and political risk assessments.
  • The EU maintains that it remains an ally of the United States while adjusting expectations about Washington's recent moves - foreign policy and trade-facing ministries are particularly relevant.

BRUSSELS, March 17 - The European Union has started to factor in the United States' unpredictable behavior one year after President Donald Trump returned to the White House, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Tuesday.

"Of course, we are allies with America, but we don’t really understand their moves recently," Kallas said in an interview. "I think it is pretty clear after this one year that the word that we have to take into account is unpredictability. So we are now more calm because we are expecting the unpredictable things to happen all the time, and take it as it is, put some ice in our hats and be calm and stay focused," she added.

Kallas framed the shift as an operational adjustment rather than a change in the underlying alliance. According to her remarks, Brussels has incorporated a heightened expectation of unexpected U.S. actions into its planning and posture. The result, she said, is a more measured reaction to developments originating in Washington, with an emphasis on remaining composed and attentive to the evolving situation.

The foreign policy chief's comments underline a recalibration in approach: by anticipating that unpredictable moves may occur, the EU intends to avoid being caught off guard and instead keep attention on its policy priorities while maintaining a composed stance.


Context and interpretation

Kallas' remarks stressed two points: the continued alliance between the EU and the United States, and the difficulty European officials have had in interpreting recent U.S. actions. That combination, she said, has led Brussels to place unpredictability explicitly on its list of operational variables, and to respond by seeking steadiness and focus.

She described the adjustment in tone as an effort to "put some ice in our hats" - a metaphor she used to convey cooling immediate reactions in favor of steadier attention.


Takeaway

  • The EU is incorporating an expectation of unpredictability in U.S. policy into its strategic calculations.
  • Brussels aims to respond with calm and sustained focus rather than immediate emotional reactions when unexpected developments arise.
  • The change is framed as an operational adaptation, not a departure from the alliance with the United States.

Risks

  • Continued unpredictability in U.S. policy could complicate EU strategic planning and coordination - this risk impacts diplomatic relations and political risk assessment in markets.
  • Difficulty in understanding recent U.S. moves may lead to misaligned expectations or delayed responses from European institutions - affecting government-to-government cooperation and related economic sectors.

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