A recent Datafolha poll, published on Saturday, places President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a technical dead heat in a hypothetical second-round vote.
The survey finds that if a runoff were held today, Lula would receive 46% of respondents' support while Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, would garner 43%.
Datafolha also tested an alternate pairing. In a potential runoff between Lula and Tarcisio de Freitas, the governor of Sao Paulo state, respondents favored Lula by 45% to 42% for de Freitas - another result the poll describes as a technical tie.
Brazil's general election is scheduled for October 4. Per the electoral rules outlined in the survey report, if no candidate secures a majority on that date, the two top vote-getters will proceed to a runoff on October 25.
The poll highlights two additional points about voter sentiment. First, Lula, who is 80 years old and seeking a fourth presidential term, leads in all hypothetical first-round configurations included in the survey. Second, Flavio Bolsonaro, 44, has increased his standing since his candidacy was publicly put forward in December by his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently in jail - a detail noted in the survey summary.
Rejection rates are pronounced for both men. Some 46% of respondents said they would not vote for Lula under any circumstances, while 45% said they would not vote for Flavio under any circumstances - a difference Datafolha characterizes as a technical tie in levels of rejection.
Methodologically, Datafolha conducted 2,004 face-to-face interviews across 137 municipalities from Tuesday through Thursday. The poll carries a reported margin of error of two percentage points in either direction.
The findings present a picture of closely contested potential runoffs and substantial candidate rejection among respondents, as measured within the parameters and sampling frame described by Datafolha.