World March 5, 2026

Conflict Widens as U.S. President Encourages Kurdish Push into Iran; Gulf and Beyond Targeted

Fighting expands across the region and into international waters as major powers and local actors strike at Iranian assets

By Caleb Monroe
Conflict Widens as U.S. President Encourages Kurdish Push into Iran; Gulf and Beyond Targeted

The conflict that began a week ago has broadened to include multiple states and theaters. U.S. President Donald Trump publicly encouraged Iranian Kurdish forces based in Iraqi Kurdistan to consider attacks across the Iran border, while Azerbaijan said it would respond after being struck by drones. Israel reported a broad campaign against infrastructure targets in Tehran as Iranian strikes renewed on Gulf cities. The fighting has extended to the Indian Ocean, where a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian naval vessel, and has led to significant casualties, infrastructure damage and disruptions to global energy and transport networks.

Key Points

  • The conflict has broadened across the Middle East and into international waters, involving Iran, Israel, Gulf states, Cyprus, Turkey, Azerbaijan and operations off Sri Lanka - sectors affected include defense and shipping.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump publicly endorsed possible attacks by Iranian Kurdish forces into Iran and said the U.S. should help choose Iran’s next leader, while U.S. defense officials maintain the campaign’s objectives are limited to degrading Iran’s missile, production and naval capabilities - impacts defense and geopolitics.
  • Market and economic effects are notable: Wall Street dipped as oil prices surged, about a fifth of global oil and LNG supplies have been cut off, and air transport and global logistics are disrupted - sectors affected include energy, airlines and global trade.

The confrontation between Iran and a coalition of states and forces has widened within seven days, with new fronts opening in the region and beyond. U.S. President Donald Trump voiced support for Iranian Kurdish forces in Iraq if they chose to enter Iran to strike against the country's security forces, while Azerbaijan warned of retaliation after being hit by drones. Israel also said it had launched a broad wave of strikes against infrastructure targets in Tehran, as Iran renewed bombardments of cities in the Gulf.

Asked about the prospect of Iranian Kurdish militias entering Iran, the president told reporters: "I think it’s wonderful that they want to do that, I’d be all for it." Two Iranian drone strikes hit an Iranian opposition camp in Iraqi Kurdistan on Thursday, according to security sources. Separately, three sources with knowledge of the matter said Iran-aligned Kurdish groups have been consulting with the United States recently on whether and how to attack Iran’s security forces in western Iran.

The coalition of Iranian Kurdish groups operating along the Iran-Iraq border in the semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan has been training to conduct such cross-border actions with the aim of degrading Iran’s military capabilities, as U.S. and Israeli forces have carried out bombardments of Iranian targets.


U.S. statements on leadership and objectives

In the same interview, the president said the United States must have a role in selecting Iran’s next leader following airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last week. He stated: "We’re going to have to choose that person along with Iran. We’re going to have to choose that person."

However, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the United States was not broadening its military goals in Iran, contradicting any immediate expansion of objectives. "There’s no expansion in our objectives. We know exactly what we’re trying to achieve," he said.


Regional escalations and responses

Azerbaijan reported that four Iranian drones crossed into its Nakhchivan exclave and injured four people. President Ilham Aliyev told a meeting of his Security Council: "We will not tolerate this unprovoked act of terror and aggression against Azerbaijan." Iran denied targeting its neighbor, according to the reporting.

Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militia issued a warning to residents in Israeli border towns, telling them to evacuate areas within 5 km (3 miles) of the border. In a message posted on its Telegram channel in Hebrew on Friday, Hezbollah said: "Your military’s aggression against Lebanese sovereignty and safe citizens, the destruction of civilian infrastructure and the expulsion campaign it is carrying out will not go unchallenged."


U.S. military operations and capacity

U.S. defense officials said the military has the munitions to sustain its bombardment for an extended period. Hegseth and Admiral Brad Cooper, who leads U.S. forces in the Middle East, said during a briefing that U.S. munitions stocks were sufficient. "Iran is hoping that we cannot sustain this, which is a really bad miscalculation," Hegseth told reporters at Central Command headquarters in Florida. "Our munitions are full up and our will is ironclad."

The Pentagon has described the military campaign, known as Operation Epic Fury, as focused on destroying Iran’s offensive missiles, missile production facilities and navy, while preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Cooper said U.S. forces have struck at least 30 Iranian ships, including a large drone carrier described as the size of a World War Two aircraft carrier.

Cooper also reported that B-2 bombers in the past few hours dropped dozens of 2,000-pound penetrator bombs against deeply buried ballistic missile launchers, and that strikes targeted Iran’s missile production facilities.

In addition to strikes in the Gulf and on Iranian soil, the conflict has extended into international waters. A U.S. submarine sank an Iranian naval ship in the Indian Ocean off Sri Lanka.


Combat intensity and casualties

Defense officials said Iran’s ballistic missile attacks have decreased by 90% since the first day of the war, while drone attacks have decreased by 83% in that time frame. Nevertheless, the human toll has been significant. The Iranian Red Crescent Society reported at least 1,230 people killed in Iran, including 175 schoolgirls and staff who died when a primary school in Minab in southern Iran was hit on the conflict’s first day. Lebanon’s Health Ministry reported another 77 people killed in that country, and thousands fled southern Beirut after Israeli warnings to evacuate.


Economic and market effects

The political and military campaign has had immediate economic consequences. Shares on Wall Street fell on Thursday, pressured by surging oil prices, as the wider economic impact intensified. Countries around the world faced disruption to energy supplies, with a reported cutoff of a fifth of global supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas. Air transport remained disrupted and global logistics have become increasingly snarled, intensifying concerns about higher gasoline prices domestically and broader market volatility.

The attack on Iran represented a major political gamble for the Republican president, with opinion polls showing limited public support and concern among Americans about rising fuel costs linked to energy supply disruptions. The president dismissed those concerns in his interview.


Current posture and outlook

As combat operations continue across multiple domains - land, sea and air - a mix of state and non-state actors remain engaged, and regional spillovers have drawn in neighboring countries and international forces. U.S. officials emphasize sustaining the military campaign against Iranian missiles and naval capabilities, while regional governments respond to direct attacks on their territory. The situation remains fluid, with economic ripple effects evident in energy markets, transport and financial markets.

Risks

  • Disruption to global energy supplies - a reported cutoff of a fifth of oil and liquefied natural gas supplies is contributing to higher fuel prices and market volatility, affecting energy markets and consumer costs.
  • Escalation and regional retaliation - Azerbaijan prepared retaliatory measures after drone incursions and Hezbollah warned of responses along the Israel-Lebanon border, indicating risks to regional security and potential further impact on trade and maritime operations.
  • Sustained military campaign and munitions use - while U.S. officials say munitions stocks are sufficient, ongoing bombardment and strikes on deeply buried missile infrastructure sustain the risk of prolonged conflict, putting pressure on defense logistics and international supply chains.

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