Buenos Aires - With the 2026 World Cup on the horizon, a different tone has settled over Argentina. The country that erupted in celebration after its 2022 victory in Qatar is approaching the next tournament with a more measured sensibility, residents and observers say.
Felipe Mujica, a 39-year-old architect who lives in Buenos Aires, described a personal shift in how he expects to experience the coming matches. Mujica has long been one of those supporters who becomes vocally intense when Argentina plays - he said he typically watches World Cup games yelling and swearing, adding that, "frankly, it’s not good to be near me." This time, however, the dynamic feels different: Argentina enters the tournament as defending champions, and Mujica said the pressure that accompanied the run to the 2022 title has eased. "We were waiting for 30 years to get another World Cup and after winning it the expectations are lower," he said. "I don’t want to say it doesn’t matter, as we get closer to the date it matters more, but we have a different kind of calm."
That subdued mood is evident across Buenos Aires. Billboards plastered with images of Lionel Messi and the national squad are visible in public spaces, and advertisers have invested in campaigns aimed at keeping the dream of another trophy alive. Yet the city’s streets lack the fever pitch that marked the run-up to and the aftermath of the 2022 tournament.
In late 2022, moments after Argentina secured the title in Qatar, Buenos Aires effectively stopped as several million people poured onto highways, overpasses and city streets in a wave of euphoria. That victory - the national team’s first since the 1986 campaign led by Diego Maradona - produced a cultural moment in which songs and slogans became ubiquitous. One such anthem in 2022, "Muchachos, Ahora Nos Volvimos a Ilusionar," evoked both Maradona and Messi and became widely sung across the country.
Diego Murzi, an Argentine sociologist who studies the cultural dimensions of soccer, said the intensity of that World Cup is unlikely to be matched. "No one expects that to be exceeded," he said. "That World Cup was very intense, and I doubt it will be repeated."
The objective difficulty of repeating as champions is part of the reason for more tempered expectations. If Argentina were to win the World Cup again in 2026, the team would join only two nations that have won back-to-back tournaments - Italy and Brazil - a feat historically rare and remarkable. Betting markets currently place Argentina around the fifth favorite, and a model by Goldman Sachs factors in a so-called "winner’s slump" effect that reduces the statistical likelihood of a defending champion repeating.
Nonetheless, optimism remains among players, staff and many supporters. Argentina’s coach, Lionel Scaloni, acknowledged the challenge in an interview posted by CONMEBOL on Instagram but did not rule out the possibility: "The truth is that it’s very difficult, but well, not impossible, right?"
Commercial messaging has tried to bridge the gap between realism and hope. A World Cup advertisement for Quilmes beer depicts friends at a pizzeria concluding they are "screwed" - only to be joined by retired basketball star Manu Ginobili, who recalls a moment at the 2004 Athens Olympics when he scored a decisive basket just before the buzzer to send his team on to a gold-medal run. The ad’s narrative signals that unexpected, decisive moments can still occur.
Attention in Argentina is also influenced by the likely swan song of Lionel Messi. At 38, Messi is headed into what observers widely regard as his sixth and almost certainly final World Cup. Tato Aguilera, a sports journalist in Buenos Aires, captured the ambivalence many feel about Messi’s role: "Here in Argentina we know that it is his last World Cup but it’s something we don’t want to believe," he said. "We want to continue that illusion that Messi is immortal and that Messi will keep playing until he’s 55 years old, something that won’t happen." Aguilera noted the volatility of public feeling, adding that it could intensify quickly once matches begin: "Remember that an Argentine can get fired up in two minutes."
For now, that combination of restrained public expectation, sustained commercial activity and lingering emotional connection to the 2022 victory defines Argentina’s mood. Fans, advertisers and analysts are navigating a balance between acknowledging the rarity and difficulty of repeating as champions and preserving a space for hope that extraordinary moments can still propel the team to success.
Context and Observations
- Public sentiment in Argentina ahead of the 2026 World Cup is noticeably less intense than the atmosphere surrounding the 2022 tournament.
- Advertising campaigns and visible promotional material continue to focus on Messi and the national team, aiming to sustain interest and optimism.
- Statistical and market indicators - including bookmaker odds and a Goldman Sachs model - suggest the defending champion faces a tougher path to repeating.