Hook & thesis
Coeur Mining is behaving like a company that should be priced for a slower cycle when in reality its 2026 setup looks closer to a replay of 2020-2021: sizeable reserves, rising commodity tailwinds and a strong free cash flow profile. The market is still digesting big moves in gold and silver; that volatility has created a window to buy a high-quality mid-cap miner at what looks like an attractive entry for 2026.
Our thesis: buy CDE on the premise that its tangible reserves and ongoing cash generation are underappreciated in the current share price. We pair that thesis with strict risk control because precious metals remain swingy. The trade is actionable with a defined entry, stop and target and is meant to be held through the next several quarters as metal prices and corporate catalysts re-rate the stock.
What Coeur does and why the market should care
Coeur Mining operates a diversified portfolio of precious-metals assets: Palmarejo, Rochester, Kensington, Wharf and Silvertip. That mix gives exposure to both gold and silver production across multiple jurisdictions and mine types (open-pit heap leach, underground), which reduces single-asset execution risk.
The market cares because Coeur combines three investor-friendly attributes that matter for valuation:
- Large proven & probable gold reserves. The company reported 4.4 million ounces of proven and probable gold reserves that analysts have valued at roughly $22.1 billion at a gold price of $5,020/oz (reported 02/18/2026). That figure is materially larger than Coeur’s public market valuation.
- Strong free cash flow. Coeur generated approximately $665.7 million of free cash flow (most recent reported), giving it the liquidity to fund operations, pay down debt, and pursue organic and M&A growth without levering the balance sheet.
- Prudent balance sheet. Debt-to-equity is low at ~0.10 and liquidity ratios are healthy (current ratio ~2.47, quick ratio ~2.06). Cash on the balance sheet is about $1.41 per share, supporting near-term operational resilience.
Key facts and valuation framing
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current price | $24.37 |
| Market cap | $15.64B |
| Enterprise value | $15.47B |
| Free cash flow (last) | $665.7M |
| P/E | ~25.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | ~16.15 |
| Proven & probable gold reserves | 4.4M oz (valued ~$22.1B at $5,020/oz) |
| 52-week range | $4.58 - $27.77 |
Simple valuation math: the market cap (~$15.6B) is notably below the headline reserve valuation (~$22.1B) implied by the company’s reserve number and a $5,020/oz price. That doesn’t imply reserves are free cash, but it does highlight that the market isn’t fully pricing the company’s in-ground value or its ability to convert reserves into cash flow. At current free cash flow generation ($665.7M), CDE trades at a reasonable multiple of cash generation while carrying a low net leverage profile.
Support from technicals and investor positioning
Technical indicators show bullish momentum but not an overbought signal: 9-day EMA ~$23.47, 21-day EMA ~$22.73, 10-day SMA ~$23.12 and an RSI near 59. Short interest has been moderate with days-to-cover under 2 on the most recent reading, meaning squeezes are possible but not extreme. Average daily volume has been elevated (30-day average ~28.8M), so the stock can move fast on news.
Catalysts to watch (2-5)
- Reserve and technical presentations - the company presented at the BMO Metals conference on 02/24/2026; follow-up commentary or clearer multi-year guidance could move the stock.
- Gold and silver prices - metal prices are the primary driver. A renewed leg higher in gold/silver would directly lever Coeur’s earnings and implied reserve valuations.
- M&A integration or strategic announcements - Coeur has been active on deals; any accretive bolt-on or clarification around capital allocation would be a re-rate catalyst.
- Quarterly results and production updates - beats on production or costs boost free cash flow expectations and can compress current EV/FCF multiples.
The trade plan (actionable)
Trade direction: long.
Entry price: $24.37 (current market level). Target price: $32.00. Stop loss: $21.00.
Time horizon: long term (180 trading days). Why this horizon? The thesis depends on metal price recovery/continued strength, reserve re-rating and steady conversion of reserves into cash flow and production improvements. Those drivers play out across quarters, not days, so a 180-trading-day horizon gives catalysts time to arrive while keeping a disciplined exit plan.
Position sizing and risk management: treat this as a thematic allocation within a precious-metals sleeve. Use the $21.00 stop to limit downside to roughly 13.8% from entry; take profits or re-evaluate at the $32.00 target (about 31% upside). If price action shows persistent momentum and company fundamentals improve (upgraded guidance, better costs, or higher FCF), consider scaling out near the target and trailing the stop upward to lock in gains.
Risks and counterarguments
Below are the main risks to the trade and at least one counterargument to the bullish case:
- Metal-price risk - Gold and silver remain the biggest drivers. A meaningful pullback in gold (we saw large moves in late January and mid-February) would compress the reserve valuation and earnings, hitting the stock quickly.
- Reserve-to-production conversion risk - Proven & probable reserves are valuable only if the company can economically mine them. Permitting, cost creep or geology can delay or reduce recoverable ounces.
- Operational execution - Mining has execution risks (labor, equipment, weather, grade variability). Missed production targets would dent free cash flow and the multiple the market assigns to cash flows.
- Equity dilution / capital allocation - If management funds growth via equity issuance or makes an expensive acquisition that destroys value, the share price could lag even if metal fundamentals are favorable.
- Volatility and liquidity swings - The stock can gap materially around macro and commodity news; active stop management is necessary.
Counterargument: The market is pricing in macro and policy risks (rate hikes, dollar strength, inflation control) that could permanently temper the precious-metals rally. Investors may demand higher margins of safety for miners despite large reported reserves — especially after rapid precious-metals moves that can reverse quickly. Also, headline reserve valuations can be misleading because they don’t reflect capex, sustaining costs, and time-discounted cash flows.
That counterargument is valid. It’s the reason the trade uses a hard stop and a multi-quarter horizon: the upside is attractive, but the path will be noisy.
What would change my mind
- If Coeur reports materially weaker free cash flow (well below the recent ~$665.7M level) or posts a spike in sustaining capex that meaningfully reduces FCF conversion.
- If gold and silver prices enter a sustained downtrend below key technical and psychological levels (e.g., gold materially below $4,800/oz for several weeks), undermining reserve valuations.
- If management announces dilutive capital raises or an acquisition that looks value-destructive without commensurate cash-flow upside.
Conclusion
Coeur Mining offers a pragmatic asymmetric trade: a company with sizeable proven reserves and real free cash flow that is trading at a market value below a headline reserve valuation. That mismatch, combined with a clean balance sheet and healthy FCF, argues for a long position sized sensibly and managed tightly via a $21 stop. The stock is not a no-brainer — metal-price volatility and execution risk are real — but for investors willing to accept those risks, CDE at $24.37 provides a compelling entry with a clear upside target of $32.00 over the next 180 trading days.