Hook & thesis
Coeur Mining (CDE) has been one of the clearest turnaround stories among mid-cap precious-metals producers. After trading as low as $4.58 in 2025, the stock has re-rated alongside a massive rally in silver and a strategic push into accretive M&A and capacity expansion. Today, with the shares near $22.50, the company shows a healthier balance sheet, consistent free cash flow and a clear North American asset base that positions it to capture further upside if metal prices normalize higher.
The trade thesis is straightforward: buy CDE at $22.50 for long-term upside to $30.00 over the next 180 trading days, with a hard stop at $19.00 to respect operational and macro risk. The rationale combines asset diversification across Palmarejo, Rochester, Kensington, Wharf and Silvertip, conservative leverage (debt/equity ~0.12), and visible free cash flow of roughly $369M last reported. If silver and gold re-accelerate or M&A synergies from the New Gold deal prove meaningful, upside could be materially larger than the downside from current levels.
What Coeur does and why the market should care
Coeur Mining is a diversified precious-metals producer operating in North America and Mexico. The company runs multiple operating assets: Palmarejo (a gold-silver complex), Rochester (open pit heap leach silver-gold in Nevada), Kensington (underground gold in Alaska), Wharf (open pit gold in South Dakota), and the Silvertip exploration project. That mix gives Coeur both gold and silver exposure with geographic concentration in mining-friendly jurisdictions.
Investors should care because Coeur combines three attractive characteristics for commodity exposure:
- Scale and diversified production - multiple operating mines reduce single-asset risk relative to single-mine juniors.
- Improving cash generation - free cash flow came in around $368.5M in the most recent disclosure, supporting capex, dividends or M&A.
- Low leverage - debt/equity near 0.12 and a current ratio of 2.0 provide flexibility to pursue deals or weather metal-price volatility.
Numbers that matter
Use these concrete data points when thinking about valuation and risk:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Share price (snapshot) | $22.50 |
| Market cap (snapshot) | $15.38B |
| P/E (trailing) | ~33.5x |
| Free cash flow (recent) | $368.5M |
| EV/EBITDA | ~22.4x |
| Return on equity | ~13.2% |
| Debt/Equity | ~0.12 |
| 52-week range | $4.58 - $27.77 |
That valuation profile is not cheap on a historical multiple basis, particularly with P/E in the mid-30s and EV/EBITDA north of 22x. But the company is trading at a premium for reasons: improved margins through operating discipline, strong cash flow, and optionality from M&A. The market appears to be pricing in a beat-or-miss scenario where commodity prices and successful integration of recent deals are key determinants.
Drivers and catalysts
- Metal-price momentum - Silver experienced a dramatic rally into late 2025, creating a tight physical market and backwardation. If silver regains traction from current levels, miners with ground-level production like Coeur are direct beneficiaries. News coverage on 12/30/2025 highlighted a 152% rally in silver year-to-date, underscoring tight supply dynamics.
- M&A optionality and execution - Coeur has been active on the M&A front; commentary in early February 2026 acknowledged strategic moves and a pending New Gold transaction that expands scale. Successful, accretive integration would improve per-share metrics and raise the stock’s multiple.
- Balance-sheet flexibility - Low leverage (debt/equity ~0.12) and positive free cash flow ($368.5M) permit share buybacks, bolt-on acquisitions, or faster development at Silvertip or other projects.
- Operational resilience - Diversified assets across Nevada, Alaska, South Dakota and Mexico reduce jurisdictional risk and give exposure to both silver and gold upside.
Trade plan (actionable)
Trade direction: Long
Entry price: $22.50
Target price: $30.00
Stop loss: $19.00
Horizon: Long term (180 trading days). I expect this trade to play out over several quarters as metal-price trends, M&A integration and continued cash generation demonstrate sustainable upside. The 180-trading-day window allows time for operational improvements, tendering of any acquisition synergies, and normalization of commodity-driven swings.
Why these levels?
- $22.50 is close to the recent trading price and represents a practical execution point with reasonable liquidity (average volume in the dataset is very high, supporting trade entry and exit).
- $30.00 is a reachable target if the market re-rates toward peer multiples after a successful quarter or two of solid free cash flow and if silver/gold prices rebound. $30 implies ~33% upside from entry and pushes the company toward a more normalized mining multiple for a low-leverage growth profile.
- $19.00 is a protective stop below key short-term moving averages and gives room for ordinary volatility while limiting downside from a renewed metal-price shock or a material operational miss.
Technical / market context
The chart indicators are mixed. RSI is neutral (~54), and MACD shows bearish momentum in the short term suggesting caution. Short interest has risen recently with days-to-cover under 2 on the latest settlement, which can amplify moves in either direction. Use position sizing to manage gamma risk around major metal-price announcements and macro events that typically move the sector.
Risks and counterarguments
- Commodity-price risk - The dominant risk is a sustained decline in silver or gold prices. A sharp decline, like the January 30, 2026 selloff, can quickly unwind valuations and inflict downside greater than operational fundamentals suggest.
- Execution on M&A - The market is pricing some benefit from acquisitions. If integration is slower or synergies disappoint, the stock could de-rate significantly.
- Volatility and liquidity risk in silver - Analysts have warned about hype and liquidity issues in silver names; a forced unwind or liquidity crunch could compress multiples and squeeze traders who are wrong on direction.
- Operational or geopolitical issues - Mine-specific disruptions, permitting delays, or Mexico operational complications at Silvertip could hit production and cash flow despite a strong balance sheet.
- Valuation premium - The company currently trades at elevated multiples (P/E mid-30s, EV/EBITDA ~22). That leaves limited margin for error; disappointing quarters could trigger steep multiple compression.
Counterargument: Critics will say Coeur is richly valued relative to historical averages and that gains are driven by a speculative run-up in silver that may not be durable. That's a fair point: if metals revert quickly, a high multiple makes CDE vulnerable. The trade therefore requires conviction in either metal-price resilience or demonstrable operational/margin improvement and successful M&A execution over the next few quarters.
What would change my mind
I would reduce the conviction in this long if any of the following occur: a) sustained silver selloff that takes silver below structural support and drags peers lower; b) a clear operational miss at one of the major operations (Palmarejo or Rochester) that materially reduces free cash flow guidance; or c) a failed or value-destructive acquisition that increases leverage or dilutes returns. Conversely, if Coeur posts sequential beats in cash flow and EBIT margins while integrating acquisitions successfully, I'd add to the position and move the stop higher.
Conclusion
Coeur Mining is not a no-brainer; it carries commodity and execution risk. But it also carries a credible path to higher cash flow and value creation via diversified North American operations, a low-leverage balance sheet and active M&A optionality. For a tactical, conviction-based long looking to capture upside from a potential re-rating and continued metal strength, buying at $22.50 with a $19 stop and a $30 target over 180 trading days offers a manageable, well-defined risk/reward. Manage position size, monitor metal prices and integration milestones closely, and be ready to trim if macro volatility spikes.
Key near-term dates to watch: quarterly releases and any updates on M&A integration; also watch macro headlines that can move precious-metal prices materially.