Yardeni Research has outlined a set of tailwinds it believes could return U.S. economic growth to a notably higher trajectory through the remainder of this decade and into the next. In its long-term outlook the firm says growth could "return to 3.6% or higher over the remainder of the 'Roaring 2020s' and into the 'Roaring 2030s.'"
The research note points to recent activity as evidence that momentum is already accelerating. Yardeni highlights that real GDP climbed 3.8% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) in the second quarter and 4.4% saar in the third quarter, and it cites the Atlanta Federal Reserve's estimate tracking a 4.2% pace for the fourth quarter.
Alongside stronger output, Yardeni projects material gains in corporate operating profits for the S&P 500. The firm said S&P 500 operating earnings, which it places at $273.59 last year, could rise to more than $310 in 2026 and reach $350 in 2027.
To support that outlook, Yardeni lists 10 factors it views as constructive for both GDP and earnings. Key elements include:
- Roaring consumer spending - The firm points to larger tax refunds associated with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, estimating a typical refund could approach nearly $4,000 and act as a stimulus comparable to past government relief payments.
- Wealth effect - Yardeni notes an "amazing wealth effect," citing Baby Boomers holding a record $88.5 trillion in net worth that can help underpin consumption.
- Technology investment - Elevated capital spending in the tech sector is highlighted as a driver of demand and productivity.
- Onshoring momentum - Policy and business shifts toward bringing production onshore under the Trump administration are listed as supportive for domestic activity.
- Productivity boom - The firm identifies advances in "Biotechnology, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, and Nanotechnology" as contributors to a productivity upswing.
- Policy support - Yardeni notes the Federal Reserve's 175-basis-point rate cuts since late 2024 as a source of monetary easing, alongside fiscal policy that is expected to be supportive.
- Rising energy investment - Increased capital deployment in energy is included among the growth drivers.
- Shifted trade patterns - Changes in trade flows linked to administration policies are cited as creating new economic dynamics.
- Improving sentiment - The firm says improving business and consumer sentiment could help revive "animal spirits."
Taken together, Yardeni argues these trends could reinforce each other and support sustained U.S. economic strength and rising corporate earnings over the next several years. The firm’s scenario rests on the persistence of the factors it lists and on continued momentum in output and investment.
Context and caveats - Yardeni’s projections and the list of supporting factors are presented as a coherent case for recovery in growth and profits. The research ties recent GDP data to its longer-term outlook and quantifies potential earnings paths for the S&P 500, but the firm’s conclusions depend on the continuation of the specific trends it identifies.