Over the last 36 hours the U.S.-Iran confrontation has intensified, with recent strikes focusing on Gulf energy infrastructure and drawing a range of political and military responses across the region and in Washington.
According to Wolfe Research, Israel conducted a strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field, and Iran answered with attacks on the Ras Laffan gas field in Qatar as well as targets in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
President Trump initially approved the Israeli strike on Iranian gas infrastructure in advance, then reversed course after Iran’s retaliatory actions. The President said that "NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL" on gas assets unless in direct retaliation, while also warning that he would "massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field" should Iran launch further strikes.
In parallel to the kinetic escalation, the Pentagon has requested $200 billion in supplemental defense funding, a request that Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed on Thursday. That funding ask is framed to address not only immediate war expenses but also the rebuilding of the defense industrial base.
Official metrics cited in recent statements suggest a decline in Iranian aerial offensives since the start of the conflict - Iranian missile strikes have fallen by 90% and drone strikes by 83%, according to the Department of War. Despite that broader downward trend, Iran demonstrated retained strike capability by successfully hitting Ras Laffan with a ballistic missile on Wednesday.
On the question of U.S. ground forces, President Trump denied plans to deploy troops during a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi, saying, "No, Im not putting troops anywhere, and if I were, I certainly wouldnt tell you... But Im not putting troops." Still, press reports indicate that White House planners are considering ground operations that could involve thousands of troops, with potential objectives cited as Kharg Island or the securing of the Strait of Hormuz.
On energy policy, the Administration reportedly rejected implementing a U.S. crude export ban on Thursday. Treasury Secretary Bessent told reporters that "The US could unilaterally do another SPR release to keep the price down" and also stated the U.S. is "absolutely not" intervening in futures markets.
Separately, the Administration put in place sanctions exemptions for Iranian oil already on the water, expanding relief beyond previously discussed Russian oil sanction carve-outs. Officials framed the exemption as narrowly targeted to existing shipments only, a measure intended to avoid providing economic benefit to the Iranian regime.
Maritime movement in the Strait of Hormuz has been tightly constrained. Iran allowed selective passage of friendly-nation vessels earlier in the week through an unusual route inside Iranian territorial waters, but traffic overall remained extremely limited and there was no clear, consistent Iranian policy governing transit. U.S. bunker-buster strikes on Iranian anti-ship missile emplacements have not removed the threat environment to a degree that reassures commercial maritime operators.
On Thursday a group of allies - the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan - said they stood ready to join what they characterized as "appropriate efforts" to safeguard passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Policy measures aimed at domestic energy prices and supply were also in motion: the Administration prepared to announce a summer E15 waiver intended to reduce pump prices, and was pursuing a package that would include a 120-day Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release together with a 60-day Jones Act waiver.
Key takeaways
- Recent strikes have targeted major Gulf gas facilities and prompted swift political and military reactions across the region and in Washington.
- U.S. officials are pursuing both defense funding increases and targeted energy-policy interventions designed to stabilize markets without broad new sanctions relief.
- Maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained; allied states have offered to help ensure safe passage, but commercial reassurance is limited.
Risks and uncertainties
- Further kinetic escalation targeting energy infrastructure could unsettle global energy markets and affect oil and gas sectors.
- Plans under consideration for ground operations, reportedly involving thousands of troops and possible objectives such as Kharg Island or the Strait of Hormuz, carry execution and geopolitical risks.
- Limited and inconsistent maritime transit policies increase shipping and insurance risks for vessels operating in the Strait of Hormuz.
The situation remains fluid. Public statements, reported operational planning and policy actions taken over the past 36 hours indicate a conflict dynamic that has intensified and is being met with both military and economic responses, with implications for energy markets, defense spending and regional maritime security.