Summary: Wolfe Research has boosted its valuation case for Eli Lilly, increasing the price target to $1,325 from $1,250 and reiterating an Outperform rating after raising long-term sales assumptions for orforglipron, the company’s investigational oral GLP-1 obesity treatment. Wolfe now forecasts peak annual revenue of about $44 billion for the pill, up from $32 billion previously and higher than an approximately $26 billion consensus estimate.
In its analysis, Wolfe emphasised that orforglipron’s combination of strong weight-loss outcomes and pill-based administration could expand the number of patients seeking obesity treatment. The brokerage compared the potential market expansion to prior drug categories that broadened treatment uptake when more convenient options became available, noting that oral therapy may loosen barriers tied to injectable medicines and draw patients who have not started therapy.
Wolfe welcomed evidence of strong demand for current obesity treatments and said limited insurance coverage is unlikely to stop early uptake. The firm pointed to past product launches in other categories that achieved meaningful uptake despite restricted payer reimbursement, arguing the obesity market could behave similarly in its early stages. Wolfe also said the market should be able to support multiple competing therapies, with variations in efficacy and dosing leaving room for several products to take significant share.
As a result of its revised demand outlook, the brokerage now expects Lilly to hold a leading position in the obesity market, projecting roughly 67% market share by 2030 and about 57% by 2035. Orforglipron is under regulatory review in the United States, with a decision expected by April 10, 2026.
Wolfe also highlighted Lilly’s broader cardiometabolic product line as a material contributor to future revenue growth. The firm forecasted revenue growth of more than 15% annually over the next two years, measured from a base of about $65 billion in 2025.
Market reaction to these developments has been mixed. Lilly’s shares rose sharply in 2025 but have declined 8% so far this year as investors weigh the impending launch of the oral drug and the company’s valuation. Wolfe described the stock’s valuation as reasonable when judged against the scale of projected growth tied to orforglipron and the cardiometabolic franchise.
Key takeaways
- Wolfe raised its Eli Lilly price target to $1,325 from $1,250 and kept an Outperform rating after increasing long-term sales expectations for orforglipron.
- The brokerage now forecasts peak annual sales for the oral GLP-1 therapy of about $44 billion, up from a prior $32 billion estimate and above an approximate $26 billion consensus.
- Wolfe projects Lilly could command about 67% of the obesity market by 2030 and roughly 57% by 2035, and expects the company’s cardiometabolic portfolio to drive revenue growth of more than 15% annually over the next two years from a roughly $65 billion 2025 base.
Risks and uncertainties
- Regulatory outcome risk - orforglipron is under U.S. review, with a decision anticipated by April 10, 2026, and that outcome will materially affect commercial prospects.
- Payer coverage and reimbursement - while Wolfe expects limited coverage will not preclude early demand, insurance and reimbursement dynamics remain an uncertainty that could influence uptake and market economics.
- Competitive landscape - Wolfe expects multiple therapies can achieve meaningful share, which implies competition could affect individual product uptake and pricing over time.
Note: ProPicks AI and related promotional content referenced in prior coverage evaluate LLY using automated metrics; the original reporting included mention of those third-party tools and their approach to stock evaluation.