Williams Trading has lowered its recommendation on Crocs to Sell from Hold, citing persistent softening in U.S. demand for the core Crocs line and for HEYDUDE. The brokerage has simultaneously lifted its price target to $84 from $75 and revised its estimates higher, but emphasized that those changes reflect financial adjustments rather than stronger underlying business momentum.
The research note highlighted checks with U.S. wholesale partners that point to planned reductions in Crocs-related business in 2026. Williams Trading said those reductions are expected to be in the high single digits to the mid-teens for Crocs overall, while HEYDUDE is forecast to decline by the mid-teens. The firm noted there has been no indication that those planned cuts will reverse in the second half of the year.
While international sales are holding up better than North American volumes and direct-to-consumer channels are outpacing wholesale, Williams Trading warned that demand overseas could also be at risk of softening. The brokerage disagreed with management's view that a cleanup in the North American marketplace will translate into wholesale growth in the second half of fiscal 2026, arguing that reduced orders mainly reflect weaker demand from wholesale partners rather than excess inventory alone.
The note also raised a caution about the company's shift toward more company-owned store openings to support direct sales. Crocs' company-owned store count grew to 439 at the end of 2025 from 340 in 2022, and HEYDUDE's store base expanded sharply over the same period. Despite the store expansion, direct-to-consumer revenue growth has been described as modest, and total EBIT margin has declined from 27.7% in 2023 to 22.3% in 2025.
Williams Trading pointed to historical periods when rapid store growth initially aided revenue but later coincided with slowing sales and margin pressure. The firm flagged increasing discounting, inconsistent pricing and frequent collaborations as additional factors that could weaken brand strength and compress margins.
On earnings, Williams Trading said fiscal 2026 revenue and margin levels are likely to fall short of company guidance. It allowed that earnings per share could still land within guidance ranges if share buybacks continue to reduce the share count, but the brokerage treated that as a financial engineering effect rather than an improvement in operating performance.
Sector impact - consumer discretionary, retail and apparel supply chains that feed wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels.