The Waste Management sector in 2026 is characterized by predictable cash flow from large, established operators and faster expansion at more growth-oriented challengers. Using InvestingPro inputs - including Fair Value, Pro Score, technical indicators and analyst targets - WarrenAI ranked five names that investors are watching closely this year. The list captures distinct profiles: an earnings momentum leader, a defensive market-cap giant, an M&A-driven growth stock, a margin-centric incumbent and a leveraged, volatile operator.
Executive overview
Each company in the ranking presents a different risk-reward trade-off. Some offer stable dividends and high operational efficiency; others deliver rapid EPS expansion but at lofty valuations and with limited cash conversion. Below are the top five Waste Management names by WarrenAI, followed by key takeaways and near-term risks investors should track.
1. Clean Harbors (CLH) - The Momentum Leader
Clean Harbors stands out for recent stock performance and rapid earnings expansion. The share price reached an all-time high of $292.97 on February 26, 2026, and produced a one-year total return of 33.9 percent. Clean Harbors posts the highest 5-year EPS compound annual growth rate among its peers at 24.6 percent. As of the latest trading level reported, CLH was priced at $292.16 and carries expectations for 12.8 percent EPS growth in 2026. The company reported an 18.6 percent EBITDA margin and earned a Pro Score of 2.67.
Operationally, CLH beat consensus forecasts for revenue and adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company also announced a strategic acquisition agreement to buy Depot Connect International’s Industrial and Rail Services business for approximately $130 million. Clean Harbors does not pay a dividend, so investor returns depend on capital appreciation and reinvestment in growth initiatives. Analysts show modest upside from current levels at 4.9 percent, while InvestingPro Fair Value indicates the stock is trading at a 23.6 percent premium to fair value.
2. Waste Management Inc. (WM) - The Defensive Giant
Waste Management Inc. remains a go-to name for investors seeking stability. With a market capitalization reported at $92 billion and a sector-leading 30.0 percent EBITDA margin, WM shows steady revenue growth and operational scale. Its 5-year revenue CAGR is 10.6 percent. Shares were quoted at $233.38, with projected EPS growth of 21.9 percent for 2026 and a Pro Score of 2.48.
Analyst consensus classifies WM as a "Strong Buy," with average targets implying about 12.2 percent upside from the trading price. At the same time, InvestingPro Fair Value registers a negative 14.2 percent upside, signaling a premium valuation relative to modeled intrinsic value. The stock has seen recent insider sales and recorded a minor earnings miss in the fourth quarter of 2025, when EPS came in at $1.93 on revenue of $6.31 billion. Despite those near-term developments, the company’s premium valuation is supported by its leading operational efficiency and ongoing sustainability projects.
3. Waste Connections (WCN) - M&A-Driven Growth
Waste Connections profiles as the highest-growth candidate in the group. It carries the strongest 2026 EPS growth forecast among peers at 30.3 percent and a 5-year EPS CAGR of 40 percent. The stock traded at $169.83 and displays a 31.8 percent EBITDA margin alongside a Pro Score of 2.29. Waste Connections has a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 30.7 times and sits at a Fair Value Upside of -8.9 percent, indicating a stretched valuation by that metric.
Market performance has been uneven: the company experienced a negative price return of 10.5 percent over the prior year. WarrenAI notes Waste Connections remains a "Strong Buy" for growth-oriented investors due to its M&A strategy and technology investments, but cautions on valuation resets and sensitivity to broader economic conditions. Analyst targets offer 21.5 percent upside. In a recent analyst development, Bernstein SocGen Group raised its price target to $205.00 while keeping an Outperform rating.
4. Republic Services (RSG) - Margin Machine, Growth Headwinds
Republic Services is framed as a reliable margin operator. The company reports a 31.0 percent EBITDA margin and consistent execution metrics, but its near-term EPS growth forecast of 5.8 percent signals more modest upside compared with peers. Shares were trading at $224.33 and carry a Pro Score of 2.52. InvestingPro Fair Value marks a -14.7 percent upside, suggesting the consensus valuation already prices limited future appreciation.
Republic’s one-year total return was negative 3.3 percent. The company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results came in slightly below consensus, and its initial guidance for 2026 also fell short of expectations. Following those announcements, BMO Capital reduced its price target on the stock. Analyst targets still show a 12.4 percent upside, positioning Republic as a stable, but not spectacular, return profile.
5. GFL Environmental (GFL) - High Risk, High Reward
GFL Environmental represents the riskiest profile among the ranked companies. It holds the highest EPS growth forecast for 2026 at 64.3 percent, but that projection accompanies a steep forward P/E of 62.8 times and a low free cash flow yield of 0.8 percent. Shares were priced at $43.95, with a reported EBITDA margin of 24.6 percent and a Pro Score of 2.01.
Analyst targets imply 29.4 percent upside while InvestingPro Fair Value shows a modest -3.8 percent gap. The company reported a 7.3 percent revenue increase in the fourth quarter of 2025 and provided revenue guidance for 2026 of $7 billion, which represents an 8 percent increase from the prior basis. WarrenAI emphasizes GFL’s leverage, volatile performance and constrained free cash flow conversion as central risks that make the stock suitable only for investors with high risk tolerance.
What investors should watch
- Valuation signals - Several names trade at premiums to InvestingPro Fair Value, implying higher expectations are embedded in current prices.
- Guidance and consensus surprises - Q4 2025 earnings and initial 2026 guidance for a number of companies came in below expectations, which affected near-term analyst sentiment and target revisions.
- Balance-sheet and cash flow dynamics - Faster-growing names show higher leverage and lower free cash flow yields, an important consideration for investors prioritizing cash conversion and resilience through cycles.
Conclusion
The WarrenAI ranking surfaces distinct investment profiles within the Waste Management sector. Clean Harbors leads on momentum and EPS expansion, Waste Management Inc. offers defensive characteristics and scale, Waste Connections targets outsized growth via M&A, Republic Services delivers margin stability with muted growth, and GFL Environmental presents high upside paired with elevated execution and leverage risks. Investors should align stock selection with their tolerance for valuation premiums, sensitivity to near-term guidance and appetite for cash flow stability.