Stock Markets February 18, 2026

Walmex Q4 Profit Falls 3.9%, Misses Analyst Expectations as Peso Strength Cuts Overseas Earnings

Mexico’s largest retailer posts revenue growth but comes in below forecasts; company to prioritize low prices, availability and e-commerce expansion

By Jordan Park
Walmex Q4 Profit Falls 3.9%, Misses Analyst Expectations as Peso Strength Cuts Overseas Earnings

Walmart de Mexico y Centroamerica (Walmex) reported a 3.9% decline in fourth-quarter net profit versus the same period in 2024, with results weighed down by currency effects in Central America. While revenue rose 3% to 282.85 billion pesos, both profit and sales missed analysts' estimates. Management said it will focus on low prices, product availability and faster e-commerce growth.

Key Points

  • Walmex reported a 3.9% decline in fourth-quarter net profit to 14.60 billion pesos, missing the 16.68 billion pesos analyst forecast.
  • Quarterly revenues rose 3% to 282.85 billion pesos but were below the 287.37 billion pesos analysts expected; Central American results fell on a reported basis but rose when excluding foreign-exchange effects.
  • Management plans to prioritize low prices, product availability and accelerating e-commerce, while the company expanded its footprint by 115 new stores during the quarter, bringing total stores to 4,265.

Walmex, the Walmart unit operating in Mexico and Central America, said its net profit for the fourth quarter slipped 3.9% year-on-year, coming in at 14.60 billion pesos for the final three months of 2025. That result fell short of the 16.68 billion pesos analysts surveyed by LSEG had expected.

Revenue in the quarter increased by 3% to 282.85 billion pesos, but that figure also underperformed relative to market forecasts of 287.37 billion pesos. The company reported declines in results across its Central American operations in nominal terms, although performance there rose when adjusted for foreign-exchange movements.

Walmex noted a notable strengthening of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar during the period. The peso appreciated 13.8% versus the dollar over the 12 months ending in December, and climbed just over 1.5% in the final quarter alone. Management said those moves reduced the peso value of earnings generated outside Mexico.

In comments included with the earnings release, CEO Cristian Barrientos emphasized the firm will sustain a focus on competitive pricing, maintaining product availability and accelerating its e-commerce initiatives. "We know what we have to do, we have clear priorities and we will accelerate the speed at which we are moving," he said in the earnings report.

During the quarter Walmex expanded its store network by opening 102 new locations in Mexico - mostly under the discount Bodega Aurrera banner - and 13 new outlets in Central America. These additions raised the companys total store count to 4,265.

The company also disclosed the exchange rate used at the end of December: one U.S. dollar equaled 18.0080 Mexican pesos.

Separately, a retail-focused analytics product noted it evaluates WALMEX each month across more than 100 financial metrics, using AI to generate stock ideas and to compare the company against peers and alternative opportunities. The product described itself as assessing fundamentals, momentum and valuation without bias and referenced past notable winners it has identified.


Clear summary

Walmex posted a modest decline in fourth-quarter net profit and missed revenue and profit forecasts as currency effects reduced the peso value of foreign earnings. Management reiterated priorities around low pricing, product availability and faster e-commerce growth while adding new stores to its network.

Risks

  • Foreign exchange volatility - the 13.8% appreciation of the Mexican peso versus the U.S. dollar over 12 months through December and a more than 1.5% gain in the final quarter reduced the peso valuation of earnings generated abroad, presenting currency-related earnings risk for the retail and consumer sectors.
  • Execution risk on strategic priorities - management identified low prices, product availability and e-commerce acceleration as clear priorities, implying uncertainty around successful implementation of these initiatives for the retail and e-commerce sectors.
  • Analyst and market expectations - the company missed both profit and revenue analyst estimates, which introduces uncertainty for investor sentiment in the retail sector.

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