Walmart is heading into the first quarter under new leadership with Wall Street anticipating a guarded outlook when the company reports results on Thursday. Investors have shown strong support for the largest U.S. retailer in recent months, but analysts expect management to set conservative annual targets as Chief Executive John Furner begins to guide the firm through what has been described as a fragile consumer environment.
The retailer’s market capitalization recently exceeded $1 trillion - a milestone that makes it the first retailer to reach that level - and its shares have climbed about 24% over the past year. That stock performance has outpaced many packaged-food companies, which have seen demand weaken as consumers pull back on spending.
Thursday’s quarterly call will be the first in which investors hear directly from Furner after he assumed the CEO role at the start of the month. Analysts note that an initial management guide for a new fiscal year is commonly cautious. "Historically management tends to be conservative when providing its initial guide for the year," said Greg Melich, analyst at Evercore ISI, adding that investors are setting a high bar with the shares trading near record levels.
The stock’s strong performance has pushed Walmart’s price-to-earnings multiple to about 45, placing it above most of its retail peers. Market expectations for the quarter place fourth-quarter revenue at $190.43 billion, based on data compiled by LSEG.
Leadership and strategic pivot
Alongside Furner’s elevation to CEO, Walmart has made notable management changes at the operating level. One of the most visible moves is the appointment of David Guggina, an executive with Amazon experience, as president and CEO of Walmart U.S. The hire signals an organizational shift toward a more technology-forward approach to retail operations.
UBS analyst Michael Lasser characterized the appointment as atypical for the Walmart of years past. "This is not a traditional appointment the 'old' Walmart would make. Though, this is a different retailer than a decade ago. It’s operating in new ways and with a different mindset," Lasser said.
That mindset emphasizes an AI-led digital transformation as Walmart competes with Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale Corp and Aldi. Management has invested heavily in artificial intelligence to narrow gaps with Amazon, which has introduced its own generative AI shopping assistant, Rufus. Walmart has pursued partnerships and tools to bring Gen AI into the customer journey, including a partnership with OpenAI to enable shopping through ChatGPT. The company is also applying AI to speed deliveries, refine recommendation engines and improve the overall customer experience - efforts that Walmart says are supporting online sales growth.
Shoppers and sales dynamics
The current economic backdrop appears to be encouraging consumers across income levels to seek lower-cost options. Walmart’s value proposition, coupled with expanded delivery capabilities, has resonated not only with its traditional lower-income base but increasingly with higher-income households as well. Executives have said that wealthier shoppers have powered much of the recent U.S. sales gains even as lower-income customers continue to experience pressure.
Retailers selling groceries and staple items have reported signs of weakening demand among price-sensitive consumers. Food manufacturers, including Kraft Heinz and General Mills, have pointed to softness in sales from financially strained shoppers.
Walmart’s investments over the past five years underline its push to capture a broader share of spending. The company has grown its online marketplace to more than half a billion items, rolled out one-hour delivery, launched Walmart+ to compete with subscription services and developed a roughly $4-billion advertising business. Those advertising revenues have contributed to improving margins, which have risen year-over-year for 10 consecutive quarters.
Customer traffic showed signs of improvement late in 2025. Visits to Walmart stores increased 2.3% in the fourth quarter compared with the same period a year earlier, and that momentum continued into January 2026, according to data from Placer.ai.
Market reaction and expectations
Since Walmart crossed the $1 trillion market-value threshold on February 3, at least nine Wall Street brokerages have raised their price targets for the stock and six have lifted their fourth-quarter profit estimates. Portfolio managers and investors point to the retailer’s ability to attract higher-income, tech-savvy customers as a key element behind the recent performance. "We’ve heard a lot about the K-shaped consumer, but it’s even more pronounced with Walmart because these higher income consumers have more of a propensity to use technology and that has attracted consumers that would not have considered going to Walmart," said Sarah Henry, managing director and portfolio manager at Logan Capital Management, which holds Walmart shares.
As Furner begins his tenure as CEO, the company faces the task of balancing cautious guidance with continued investment in technology and services intended to expand its customer base and margins. Investors will be watching the quarterly results and management commentary closely for signals on how aggressively Walmart will pursue growth in the current macroeconomic climate.