Stock Markets February 11, 2026

Wall Street Ends Flat as Strong Jobs Data Weakens Odds of Near-Term Fed Cuts

Futures little changed after mixed regular session; investors now eye CPI for further direction

By Sofia Navarro MCD CSCO
Wall Street Ends Flat as Strong Jobs Data Weakens Odds of Near-Term Fed Cuts
MCD CSCO

U.S. equity futures were largely unchanged Wednesday evening after a subdued regular session, as investors absorbed a stronger-than-anticipated jobs report that trimmed expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate reductions. Major index futures moved in a narrow band while the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all finished the day near flat. Market attention is shifting to Friday's Consumer Price Index release for additional guidance on inflation and the likely path of monetary policy.

Key Points

  • U.S. futures were little changed Wednesday night after a mostly flat regular session, with S&P 500 Futures at 6,963.75, Nasdaq 100 Futures at 25,262.75, and Dow Futures at 50,228.0.
  • January nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, a combination that trimmed odds of imminent Fed interest-rate cuts.
  • Corporate moves in after-hours trading included McDonald's topping revenue and sales estimates but seeing muted stock reaction, while Cisco shares fell about 7% after disappointing earnings and guidance.

U.S. stock futures showed little net movement on Wednesday night following an otherwise muted trading day on Wall Street, with major benchmarks ending the regular session close to unchanged as participants processed robust labor market data that reduced the probability of near-term policy easing by the Federal Reserve.

By 20:04 ET (01:04 GMT), S&P 500 Futures were up 0.1% at 6,963.75 points, Nasdaq 100 Futures were down 0.1% at 25,262.75 points, and Dow Jones Futures traded 0.1% higher at 50,228.0 points.

In cash trading, the S&P 500 finished the session flat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1%, ending a three-day winning streak, and the NASDAQ Composite declined 0.2% after an initial positive reaction to the latest employment figures.


Labor data cools rate-cut expectations

Wednesday's government report showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, a figure that came in well above consensus expectations, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%.

The stronger-than-expected jobs gain reinforced the view that the U.S. economy retains resilience, but it also prompted investors to pare back wagers that the Fed will move to cut interest rates in the near term. The report included meaningful downward revisions to prior months that, according to market commentary, exposed underlying weakness in parts of the labor market over the past year.

"The US added more jobs than expected in January, but sizeable downward revisions reveal that - outside of leisure & hospitality, private healthcare, and government - the economy has actually been consistently losing jobs," ING analysts said in a note. "This suggests the risks remain tilted toward the Fed cutting rates more than the two reductions currently in our forecast," they added.

With the next key data point on the calendar, attention is turning toward Friday's Consumer Price Index report, as traders look for additional evidence on the inflation trend and timing of potential rate moves.


Company results add to after-hours moves

Among corporate updates, McDonald's Corporation reported quarterly results that outperformed revenue and sales estimates. Despite the topline beat, the company's shares were muted in after-hours trading.

Cisco Systems experienced a significant after-hours reaction, with shares falling about 7% following quarterly results and forward guidance that disappointed investors.

Overall, markets entered the evening with limited directional conviction, reflecting a mix of stronger labor market data and upcoming inflation readings that together are shaping expectations for monetary policy timing.

Risks

  • Elevated payrolls and a lower unemployment rate may cause market participants to scale back rate-cut expectations, affecting interest-rate sensitive sectors such as real estate and fixed-income markets.
  • Revisions to prior employment data highlight potential weakness in underlying labor-market trends, adding uncertainty to the economic outlook and corporate earnings for sectors reliant on consumer demand.
  • Upcoming CPI data could shift market sentiment materially depending on inflation signals, creating volatility for equities, bonds, and sectors with high leverage to rates.

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