Stock Markets February 19, 2026

VGP posts mixed 2025 results as recurring EPS rises but key metrics miss forecasts

Recurring earnings climb sharply while operating and net profits trail analyst expectations; pipeline expansion and fund plans announced

By Derek Hwang
VGP posts mixed 2025 results as recurring EPS rises but key metrics miss forecasts

Belgian logistics property owner VGP reported a 33% jump in recurring earnings per share for 2025, but several headline metrics came in below analyst forecasts. Gross and net rental income increased, project completions and the development pipeline expanded, and the company unveiled plans to launch a fund with East Capital. At the same time, operating profit, net profit, EPRA net tangible assets per share and the proposed dividend underperformed some analyst predictions, while proportional net debt and loan-to-value rose.

Key Points

  • Recurring EPS rose 33% to 3.76, beating analyst estimates by 6%. Sectors impacted: listed real estate and investment portfolios.
  • Gross rental income increased 17% to 247.4 million and net rental income rose 18% to 223.4 million, supporting the logistics real estate sector.
  • Development pipeline advanced: 21 projects completed adding 494,000 sqm at 99% occupancy and 43 projects under construction adding 1,052,000 sqm, affecting construction and logistics markets.

VGP, the Belgian logistics real estate group, released its 2025 results showing a mix of outperformance and shortfalls across financial and operating metrics.

The company reported recurring earnings per share of 3.76, a 33% increase versus the prior year and 6% ahead of analyst expectations. Proportionally consolidated total gross rental income reached 247.4 million, up 17% year-on-year and 2.4% above Jefferies' estimate. Net rental income rose 18% to 223.4 million.

Despite those gains, several key profit measures fell below forecasts. Proportional operating profit including valuation gains was 433 million, a 9% increase from 2024 but 17% lower than analyst projections. Reported net profit remained unchanged at 290 million (10.64 per share), coming in 23% under Jefferies' estimate of 379 million.

On the development front, VGP completed 21 projects during 2025, adding 494,000 square meters of lettable area. Those completions reached a 99% occupancy level and represent 33 million in annualized lease income. The company has 43 projects currently under construction, which are expected to add 1,052,000 square meters of lettable area once finished.

VGP also expanded its land holdings, growing the land bank to 10.3 million square meters after acquiring 1,327,000 square meters of land last year. In a strategic move to broaden its capital base, the company said it intends to establish a fund with East Capital that will target at least 1.5 billion in gross asset value with an emphasis on Central and Eastern Europe.

Measures of balance-sheet strength and shareholder value were mixed. EPRA Net Tangible Assets per share rose 9% year-over-year to 97.33, but this measure was below analyst expectations of 101.80. Proportional net debt increased 13% to 3.4 billion and the loan-to-value ratio stood at 50%.

For shareholders, VGP proposed a dividend of 3.40 per share, up from 3.30 a year earlier but short of the 3.50 level some analysts had anticipated.


These results present a combination of operational expansion and financial metrics that did not fully meet market forecasts, leaving investors to weigh growth in rental income and development activity against profit and valuation measures that disappointed relative to analyst expectations.

Risks

  • Operating profit including valuation gains of 433 million was 17% below analyst forecasts, indicating earnings volatility that could affect investor sentiment in real estate equities.
  • Net profit of 290 million (10.64 per share) was 23% below Jefferies' estimate, introducing uncertainty around profitability expectations for REIT investors.
  • EPRA NTA per share (97.33) fell short of expectations and proportional net debt rose 13% to 3.4 billion with a 50% loan-to-value ratio, highlighting balance-sheet and valuation risks for property and credit markets.

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