Stock Markets February 12, 2026

Verisure Posts Record Q4 Installations, Lifts Annual Recurring Revenue Above Guidance

Strong customer additions and margin gains drive full-year outperformance and a confident 2026 outlook

By Sofia Navarro
Verisure Posts Record Q4 Installations, Lifts Annual Recurring Revenue Above Guidance

Verisure PLC reported a standout fourth quarter driven by a record number of new installations, delivering annual recurring revenue growth that exceeded the company’s guidance. The security services provider widened margins in the quarter and closed 2025 with higher customer counts, modestly stronger operating profit than forecast, and guidance for continued ARR expansion and margin improvement in 2026.

Key Points

  • Record Q4 installations - Verisure added 224,000 new customers in Q4 2025, a 5.9% year-over-year increase and an improvement from Q3's 5.2% growth.
  • Improved profitability - Adjusted EBIT margin expanded by 180 basis points year-over-year to 24.5% in Q4, contributing to a full-year margin of 25.4%.
  • Guidance and capital priorities - For 2026 the company targets ~10% ARR growth, adjusted EBIT margin above 26%, positive free cash flow, leverage of 2.5-2.75x by year-end, and dividend initiation in H2.

Overview

Verisure PLC said its fourth quarter of 2025 produced record new installations and robust revenue expansion, pushing annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth beyond the company’s guidance. The firm highlighted improvements in customer additions, steady churn, and higher average revenue per user, which together supported stronger-than-expected ARR and margin improvements.

Customer growth and unit economics

In Q4 2025 Verisure added 224,000 new customers, equal to a 5.9% year-over-year rise. That pace represented a record quarterly intake and was an increase versus the 5.2% growth rate recorded in the third quarter, showing sequential improvement. Customer attrition remained stable at 7.4% during the quarter, while average revenue per user (ARPU) advanced by 2.7% compared with the same period a year earlier.

Those dynamics contributed to ARR growth of 12.4% for the quarter, above the company’s guidance target of 12%.

Revenue, margins and annual results

Quarterly revenue rose 10.9% to 2965 million, marginally beating analyst expectations. On an adjusted basis, EBIT margin improved by 180 basis points year-over-year to 24.5% in Q4, helping lift the full-year adjusted EBIT margin to 25.4%.

For the full year 2025 Verisure reported 3.9% growth in new installations, finishing the year with a total customer base of 6.2 million customers, a 10% increase from the prior year. The company generated operating profit of 953 million for the year, slightly above its prior guidance range of 940-950 million.

Outlook and targets for 2026 and beyond

Looking ahead, Verisure provided guidance for 2026 that calls for roughly 10% ARR growth and an adjusted EBIT margin above 26%. The company also forecast positive free cash flow in 2026, intends to maintain leverage in the 2.5-2.75x range by year-end, and plans to commence dividend payments in the second half of the year.

Management confirmed its medium-term objectives, reiterating an aim for annual ARR growth of approximately 10% and a long-term adjusted EBIT margin target of 30%.

Analyst view

Morgan Stanley kept an Overweight rating on Verisure and set a price target of 19.50, which the firm said implies more than 50% upside from the current share price of 12.50.


Implications

The quarter reinforced the company's growth trajectory, with record installations, stable churn, and modest ARPU gains combining to lift ARR and margins. Management's 2026 guidance and the reaffirmed medium-term targets signal confidence in continued top-line expansion and margin progression.

Risks

  • Customer attrition - With churn at 7.4%, any upward movement in attrition could pressure ARR and revenue growth; this affects subscription-based security services and consumer-facing recurring revenue streams.
  • Margin and cash-flow execution - The companys guidance depends on achieving above-26% adjusted EBIT margin and positive free cash flow in 2026; failure to meet these targets could affect balance-sheet resilience and shareholder returns.
  • Leverage management - Maintaining leverage in the 2.5-2.75x range is an explicit target; deviation from this range could influence financing flexibility and investor perception.

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