The U.S. Supreme Court has invalidated a significant portion of tariffs that had been imposed under a law intended for national emergencies, a decision that alters the immediate tariff landscape for many European exporters but also introduces new ambiguity about the future of trade policy.
Across sectors - including winemakers, chemical producers and distillers - the judgement was met with cautious relief. Yet voices from trade associations and legal advisers warned that the move may not translate into lasting stability. Instead, they say it could trigger a new period of uncertainty, with companies delaying orders and planning while they await clearer guidance on how the U.S. will proceed.
Immediate reaction from European industry groups
Paolo Castelletti, secretary general of Italy’s wine association UIV, expressed concern that the court’s decision "... risks creating a boomerang effect, producing further uncertainty and a freeze on orders while operators wait for a clearer regulatory framework," highlighting the potential for short-term disruption even as tariffs are rescinded.
The United States is the largest market for Italian wines, accounting for 1.9 billion euros ($2.3 billion) in exports in 2024, or almost a quarter of Italy’s global wine shipments. For producers reliant on U.S. demand, the ruling alters the calculus of pricing and market access but does not remove immediate business decisions that were already made in response to higher levies.
Legal and business concerns about the durability of relief
Steve Orava, chair of the International Trade Practice Group at law firm King & Spalding, said that many of his clients - ranging from large U.S. manufacturers to consumer and technology groups - largely expected any tariff relief to be short-lived. "The major issue everybody’s going to be dealing with for at least the short term is some additional uncertainty," he said, underscoring that judicial relief may not eliminate political responses.
That concern was echoed by Wolfgang Grosse Entrup, managing director of the German chemicals and pharmaceutical lobby VCI, which represents companies such as BASF, Bayer and Evonik. He warned: "For our firms, this isn’t the start of a phase of stability, but a new round of uncertainty. Anyone who believes this means the tariff conflict is over is mistaken." He added that "New tariffs based on a different legal basis are possible at any time."
Tariff refunds also pose a practical difficulty, with several commentators noting that recovering duties already paid by importers will not be straightforward. At the same time, the U.S. administration announced a separate set of actions, including a new global tariff of 10% for an initial 150-day period, and acknowledged uncertainty over if or when refunds will be issued.
Supply-chain implications and broader market reactions
Supply-chain analysts and freight specialists say some of the damage from the tariffs is effectively done. Peter Sand, chief analyst at freight pricing platform Xeneta, said political risk remains for shippers and that moves to de-risk supply chains represent an "irreversible trend." "The damage to many shippers’ supply chains is largely done and probably won’t be undone," he said, indicating that logistical and cost changes made in response to tariff risk may persist even if levies are reduced.
Trade groups in consumer sectors were similarly cautious. The French cosmetics association FEBEA, which counts companies such as L’Oreal among its members, described itself as "very cautious" and said it would monitor how the U.S. government reacts, including any potential new tariffs. "We are all used to the twists and turns on this subject of customs duties," said FEBEA secretary general Emmanuel Guichard.
Massimiliano Giansanti, president of Italian farmers’ group Confagricoltura, said the ruling "dismantles the entire legal basis" for the prior tariffs but warned that it complicates matters for exporters who were already adjusting to U.S. duties. "All this generates deep instability at a time when we need certainty and have begun a process together with our U.S. importers," he said, pointing to the operational and commercial disruption caused by shifting rules.
Distillers and spirits exporters await clarity
In Ireland, exporters of whiskey said they would hold off on decisive action until the next developments are clear. Eoin Ó Catháin, Director of the Irish Whiskey Association, said political negotiations and de-escalation remain the more likely path to resolving tariff disputes, while cautioning: "This isn’t a silver bullet to get rid of tariffs. This is just another complication, it’s another twist in the story."
Outlook
While the court’s decision rescinded a major legal basis for the earlier tariffs, businesses and trade groups across Europe say that the broader trade picture remains unsettled. Companies face practical challenges around potential non-refund of duties already paid, the prospect of new tariffs under alternative legal theories, and the longer-term effects on supply-chain strategies. For many exporters, the headline relief will be tempered by operational and strategic recalibrations as they wait to see how the U.S. government implements new measures and whether trade tensions ease or evolve.
($1 = 0.8490 euros)
Key points
- Supreme Court decision removes a significant legal basis for tariffs imposed under emergency authority but creates fresh uncertainty among exporters and industry groups.
- Sectors affected include wine, chemicals, cosmetics, distillers and shipping/logistics; major exporters warn that operational disruption and supply-chain changes may persist.
- The U.S. announced a separate 10% global tariff for an initial 150-day period and indicated uncertainty over tariff refunds, complicating immediate business planning.
Risks and uncertainties
- Possibility of new tariffs based on different legal grounds - risk to exporters in sectors like chemicals, agriculture and consumer goods.
- Difficulty in obtaining refunds for duties already paid - financial and cash flow risk for importers and distributors.
- Persistent supply-chain shifts and de-risking measures - long-term operational impact for shippers and logistics providers.