Market snapshot
Futures tied to the principal U.S. equity benchmarks climbed in early Friday trade, recouping earlier losses even as oil remained elevated amid an intensifying military campaign involving the U.S. and Israel in Iran. By 06:20 ET (10:20 GMT), the Dow futures contract had risen by 122 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures had gained 14 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had climbed by 42 points, or 0.2%.
Conflict in Iran and market reverberations
Markets continue to grapple with the geopolitical shock from a joint U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran that has now persisted for more than a week. Officials in Washington have described the campaign as producing a significant degradation of Iran’s military and economic capacity. President Donald Trump said the United States is "totally destroying" Iran’s military and economy.
Reports from a recent G7 virtual meeting conveyed that Trump told fellow leaders Iran is "about to surrender," according to a report cited by three G7 officials briefed on the call. Analysts at Vital Knowledge cautioned that the market significance of that account is limited, noting that Tehran has not signaled any willingness to capitulate.
Complicating the outlook, new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has said that the critical Strait of Hormuz - the chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of global oil flows - will remain closed. Some market observers have suggested Tehran could seek to exert pressure by constraining shipping through the strait even as the U.S. and Israel appear to have gained military predominance in the operation.
In response to the risk to shipping routes, the U.S. Treasury Department has said it would permit countries to purchase some sanctioned Russian crude until April 11. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also noted that the U.S. plans for the Navy to provide an escort for commercial vessels transiting the strait. Separately, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, are scheduled to hold a news conference on Friday morning.
Oil market volatility
The prospect of a protracted conflict in a major oil-producing region has pushed Brent crude back above the $100 per barrel mark. Brent has been exceptionally volatile this week, at one stage approaching almost $120 a barrel before later pulling back briefly below $90 a barrel.
By 04:33 ET on Friday, Brent crude futures had risen by 0.6% to $101.04 a barrel, placing the contract on track for a gain of more than 9% over the prior week. Before the recent outbreak of hostilities, Brent had been trading around $70 a barrel.
Options market pricing highlights the uncertainty around whether elevated crude will persist. Kieran Tompkins, Senior Climate and Commodities Economist at Capital Economics, noted in a research note that investors in the options market assign a one-in-five chance of Brent crude prices being $100 per barrel or higher in three months’ time.
Macro calendar - inflation and labor data
Attention in the U.S. also turns to inflation data that could affect monetary policy expectations. The Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index for January is due on Friday. The so-called core PCE gauge, which excludes volatile items such as food and fuel and is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, is expected to show 3.1% year-on-year inflation for the twelve months to January, up from 3.0% in December.
Analysts at ING pointed out that the core PCE index bottomed at 2.6% last summer and has since trended higher, moving away from the Fed’s 2% target. "This limits the ability of the Fed to cut rates this year, and we will hear a lot more from the Fed at next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting," ING analysts wrote.
For context, a Labor Department measure of consumer price growth released on Wednesday registered a comparatively modest 2.4% year-on-year increase. However, those statistics largely predate the outbreak of the Iran war, and the conflict has since darkened the inflation outlook, particularly through higher energy prices.
Alongside inflation readings, a tracker of job openings and labor turnover for January is also slated for release. Fed officials will weigh both labor market indicators and inflation data as they assess monetary policy paths amid a labor market that recent data have suggested may be softening.
Corporate movers in premarket trading
Several individual stocks saw notable premarket volatility. Adobe shares fell sharply, sliding 7.5% in premarket trade after the creative-software company announced that Shantanu Narayen, who has led the company for eighteen years, will step down. The company said its board has initiated a search for his successor.
Narayen is a long-tenured Adobe executive who joined the company in 1998 and rose through a series of promotions to assume the chief executive role in December 2007. One of his signature strategic moves was consolidating the company’s software offerings into a cloud-based subscription model. Under his leadership, annual revenue grew from $3.58 billion to $23.77 billion. The company, headquartered in San Jose, California and known for products such as Photoshop and Premiere Pro, still posted a quarterly top- and bottom-line beat and issued current-quarter guidance that was largely above expectations.
Cloud-data management firm Rubrik showed gains in premarket trade after reporting better-than-anticipated fourth-quarter income per share, sales, and subscription annual recurring revenue. Management characterized the results as evidence that the business is "an increasingly critical platform for the AI era."
Shares of Ulta Beauty fell after the cosmetics chain reported a modest earnings-per-share shortfall for the quarter and issued fiscal 2027 guidance that investors judged underwhelming.
What this means for markets
Early Friday’s bounce in futures suggests some intraday stabilization after recent risk-off moves tied to the Iran conflict and related crude volatility. Still, the combination of an ongoing military campaign with the potential to disrupt oil flows, elevated Brent prices and a key inflation print due Friday leaves investors with several interlinked variables to monitor — energy markets, monetary policy guidance from the Fed and corporate earnings and guidance that may be recalibrated in the current environment.
Note: Certain figures and official comments referenced in this report reflect statements and data released by government officials, market participants and company disclosures.