Stock Markets February 23, 2026

U.S. Futures Edge Up After Sharp Losses Driven by Tariff Uncertainty and AI Concerns

Investors weigh legal fallout from tariffs and approach NVIDIA earnings amid broad tech weakness

By Avery Klein NVDA FDX
U.S. Futures Edge Up After Sharp Losses Driven by Tariff Uncertainty and AI Concerns
NVDA FDX

U.S. equity futures ticked higher Monday evening following a day of steep declines on Wall Street as uncertainty over new tariffs and anxieties about AI-related disruption in software pressured markets. Additional volatility stemmed from legal and geopolitical questions, including FedEx's suit seeking tariff refunds after a Supreme Court ruling and investor caution ahead of NVIDIA's earnings due this week.

Key Points

  • U.S. futures rose marginally after major indexes posted steep losses driven by tariff uncertainty and AI-related concerns, with S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow futures all up roughly 0.1% or less.
  • FedEx filed a lawsuit seeking full refunds of emergency tariffs paid over the past year after the Supreme Court ruled those levies illegal; the ruling left unresolved questions about more than $160 billion in collected revenue.
  • Investors are cautious ahead of NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings this week, viewing the company as a key indicator of AI demand; technology and software stocks underperformed during the sell-off.

U.S. stock-index futures moved modestly higher on Monday evening after a session that saw major benchmarks fall sharply amid fresh uncertainty over tariffs announced by President Donald Trump and growing concern that advances in artificial intelligence could disrupt the software industry.

By 7:30 p.m. ET (00:30 GMT), S&P 500 futures had inched up less than 0.1% to 6,855.0. Nasdaq 100 futures were up about 0.1% at 24,781.0, while Dow Jones futures rose nearly 0.1% to 48,873.0.


Market participants cited multiple sources of unease. The ongoing debate over the scope and legality of recent tariffs, including a 15% universal tariff announced under a different legal framework, had investors reassessing trade-related costs and policy risk. Uncertainty about what would happen to roughly $160 billion in revenue collected under prior levies also weighed on sentiment after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled those emergency tariffs illegal and they were scheduled to be lifted at midnight Tuesday.

Against this backdrop, FedEx Corporation filed suit against the U.S. government late Monday, seeking a full refund for emergency tariffs it paid over the past year. FedEx is the first company to pursue refunds following the Supreme Court ruling and joins a broader cohort of firms pursuing legal challenges to the tariffs.


Investors also remained cautious ahead of quarterly results from NVIDIA Corporation, due this week. NVIDIA is widely regarded as a bellwether for AI demand, and expectations are for strong earnings growth versus the prior year. That outlook did not prevent a risk-off move in technology shares on Monday, however, as software stocks were singled out for declines amid mounting fears that artificial intelligence breakthroughs could upend parts of the software sector.

Wall Street posted broad losses during the regular session, with the S&P 500 falling about 1% and the Nasdaq Composite shedding roughly 1.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led benchmarks lower with an approximate 1.7% drop. Technology names underperformed, and software companies experienced notable selling pressure as investors absorbed both tariff-related uncertainty and the speculative prospect of AI-driven displacement in white-collar roles.

Geopolitical concerns over a possible U.S.-Iran conflict added to risk aversion, while traders also monitored whether the tariff debate would expand. Reporting indicated the president was considering additional levies affecting multiple industries, and he signaled higher tariffs were possible if trade partners backed away from recently negotiated deals. Those comments contributed to a sense that trade policy could yet broaden, leaving firms and markets to reckon with potential new costs.


Amid the market turbulence, some market participants pointed to research and scenarios raising the prospect of extensive labor-market disruption from AI over time. One speculative scenario circulated in the market, produced by an independent research group, sketched a hypothetical outcome in June 2028 in which AI-related displacements were widespread among white-collar workers. That scenario, though hypothetical, reinforced caution among investors already on edge from policy risks and near-term earnings uncertainty.

For investors and traders, the near-term focus remains twofold: how legal and policy developments around tariffs will resolve and how NVIDIA’s results and guidance will frame the growth and durability of AI demand for semiconductors and related software. These factors are likely to influence positioning across technology and trade-sensitive sectors in the coming days.

Key market metrics to watch include the flow of litigation and refund claims stemming from the Supreme Court decision, any subsequent tariff announcements or clarifications from policymakers, and the details in NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings report that could confirm or challenge current expectations for AI-driven revenue growth.

Risks

  • Tariff policy uncertainty - Continued shifts or expansion in tariff policy could increase costs for trade-sensitive businesses and amplify market volatility, particularly for sectors reliant on global supply chains.
  • AI-related disruption risk in software - Rising concern about the potential for artificial intelligence to disrupt the software industry has pressured software equities and could affect valuations if perceived risks increase.
  • Legal and geopolitical uncertainty - Ongoing litigation over tariff refunds and worries about a U.S.-Iran conflict are contributing to broader risk-off investor behavior, impacting equities across major benchmarks.

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