The U.S. Supreme Court has invalidated a substantial part of tariff measures that were enacted under national emergency powers, a ruling that could reduce duties facing European exporters. The move, while welcomed by some businesses, has prompted widespread concern across industry groups in Europe about a new phase of trade uncertainty rather than a clean resolution.
European wine producers, chemical makers, distillers and other exporters reacted with guarded relief and caution. Paolo Castelletti, secretary general of Italy's wine association UIV, warned that the ruling risks prompting a "boomerang effect," potentially freezing orders as operators await clearer rules. Italy’s exports to the United States are significant: the U.S. market accounted for about 1.9 billion euros of Italian wine exports in 2024, roughly one quarter of Italy’s global wine shipments.
Despite the court decision, several factors temper expectations of immediate and lasting benefit for exporters. U.S. political leaders indicated alternative responses: in reaction to the ruling, the U.S. administration announced new global tariffs of 10% for an initial 150-day period and acknowledged uncertainty over timing or availability of refunds. That response undercuts the sense that the legal decision will readily translate into long-term tariff relief.
Legal and commercial advisers say companies should expect continued volatility. Steve Ovara, chair of the International Trade Practice Group at law firm King & Spalding, said clients ranging from large U.S. manufacturers to consumer and technology groups generally expect any reduction in duty burdens to be temporary. He noted that the central near-term problem for many firms will be additional uncertainty as they reassess positions.
Industry lobbyists in Germany expressed a similar view. Wolfgang Grosse Entrup, managing director of the German chemicals and pharmaceutical lobby VCI, which represents firms including major manufacturers in the sector, said the decision does not mark the start of a stable period. He warned that new tariffs based on different legal rationales remain possible at any time, creating a fresh round of uncertainty for chemical and pharmaceutical companies.
Freight and logistics specialists also signalled persistent risk to supply chains. Peter Sand, chief analyst at freight pricing platform Xeneta, said the political risk for shippers continues and that moves to de-risk supply chains are likely irreversible. He added that the damage to many companies’ supply lines is already done and probably will not be undone quickly even with lower levies.
Trade associations representing other sectors urged caution. French cosmetics group FEBEA, whose membership includes major brands, said it would monitor how the U.S. government responds and remained "very cautious" about the implications of the ruling. FEBEA's secretary general Emmanuel Guichard said members are accustomed to policy fluctuations on customs duties and will watch for any new measures the U.S. may take.
Italian agricultural interests emphasised the disruption to exporters who had been adapting to tariff conditions. Massimiliano Giansanti, president of Italian farmers’ group Confagricoltura, said the court decision dismantles the legal basis for the prior tariffs but warned it complicates matters for exporters at a sensitive moment. He said the ruling creates "deep instability" just as producers have started adapting to what had been U.S. tariff policy and in the midst of cooperation with U.S. importers.
Among distillers, reactions were likewise cautious. Eoin Ó Catháin, director of the Irish Whiskey Association, said exporters are waiting to see how events unfold before taking further action. He argued that political negotiation and de-escalation are more likely to resolve tariff disputes than legal decisions alone, calling the court outcome "just another complication" rather than a definitive solution to the problem.
Complicating the practical outcomes, companies also face uncertainty about whether any previously paid tariffs will be repaid. Officials acknowledged it is unclear if and when refunds would be issued, a factor that could limit the relief felt by affected businesses even if levies are reduced going forward.
For Europe's exporters and the sectors that serve them, the ruling marks a shift in the legal landscape but not a clear end to tariff-related disruption. Wine producers, chemical and pharmaceutical manufacturers, cosmetics firms, farmers and distillers will watch both legal and political developments closely as they navigate a trading environment that remains unsettled.
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