Stock Markets February 18, 2026

UK Stocks Tick Higher as Inflation Eases; Pound Recovers — BAE and Glencore Move Markets

Market reaction centers on softer January CPI, renewed bets on Bank of England rate cuts and mixed corporate earnings from defence and mining sectors

By Ajmal Hussain YOU
UK Stocks Tick Higher as Inflation Eases; Pound Recovers — BAE and Glencore Move Markets
YOU

British equities opened modestly higher after official data showed UK inflation cooled in January, increasing expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in March and June. The pound regained some ground after slipping the previous day. Investors focused on corporate updates from BAE Systems and Glencore, and a board appointment at YouGov.

Key Points

  • UK annual inflation fell to 3.0% in January, down from 3.4% in December, supporting expectations of Bank of England rate cuts.
  • FTSE 100 opened 0.4% higher; the pound traded at 1.3560 against the dollar, up 0.01% as of 0806 GMT.
  • BAE Systems raised its total annual dividend to 36.3 pence and repurchased 30 million shares; Glencore reported lower adjusted EBITDA and EBIT despite higher revenue.

British stock markets opened with gains on Wednesday after data showed a clear slowdown in UK inflation for January, a development that reinforced market expectations for upcoming Bank of England rate cuts. By 0806 GMT the FTSE 100 had climbed 0.4% and the pound had recovered slightly, trading at 1.3560 against the dollar, up 0.01% after slipping on Tuesday following unemployment figures.

Across continental Europe, Germany's DAX was up 0.5% while France's CAC 40 rose 0.3% as equities broadly reacted to the macroeconomic readings.


Inflation snapshot

The headline annual consumer price index for the UK fell to 3.0% in January from 3.4% in December, a drop that strengthens the case for rate reductions at the Bank of England's March meeting and potentially again in June. The December reading itself had edged up from November's 3.2%, marking that earlier month as the first uptick in inflation in five months.

On a monthly basis, the CPI declined 0.5% after a 0.4% rise in December. Core CPI - which excludes food and energy - fell 0.6% month on month and stood at 3.1% year on year, down from 3.2% in December.

ING's UK economist James Smith characterized the numbers as "a bit of a mixed bag," pointing to the stark improvement in food inflation but noting that services inflation remains relatively persistent. Smith added that "the real action will come in April" when fresh readings for headline and services inflation could make policymakers "more comfortable with the inflation outlook." These comments underline how markets are parsing both headline and underlying inflation in assessing the timing and scale of potential rate moves.


Corporate movers

In company news, BAE Systems PLC raised its dividend after a period of strong defense ordering. The British defense contractor recommended a final dividend of 22.8 pence, lifting the total payout for the year to 36.3 pence, a 10% increase versus the prior year. During the period the company also repurchased 30 million shares at a cost of 502 million.

Glencore PLC reported a mixed set of full-year results. Despite record-high copper prices, those gains were insufficient to offset pressure in its coal business. The miner's adjusted EBITDA fell 6% to $13.5 billion, while total revenue increased 7% year on year to $247.5 billion. Adjusted EBIT declined 14% to $6 billion, with earnings per share reported at $0.03.

Online market research firm YouGov plc appointed Ian Griffiths as permanent chair. Griffiths, who joined YouGov's board in September 2025, replaces Deborah Davis, who had been serving in the role on an interim basis since February 2025.


Market implications

  • Softening headline and core inflation readings strengthen market expectations for Bank of England rate cuts, which in turn supports equity valuations, particularly for interest-rate sensitive sectors.
  • FX movement was modest, with the pound regaining a small amount of lost ground versus the dollar after a prior-day fall tied to labour market data.
  • Company-level developments show divergent sectoral pressures: defence names benefited from higher orders and shareholder returns, while mining was challenged by mixed commodity and business-line performance.

Summary

UK inflation cooled in January, reinforcing expectations of Bank of England rate cuts in March and June and coinciding with a modest uptick in British equities and a small rebound in the pound. Corporate headlines were split: BAE Systems increased its dividend and continued buybacks, whereas Glencore posted weaker adjusted earnings despite stronger revenues, and YouGov confirmed a permanent chair appointment.

Risks

  • Services inflation remains sticky, which could complicate the Bank of England's decision-making around rate cuts - impacts monetary policy and interest-rate sensitive sectors.
  • Weakness in Glencore's coal business and falling adjusted earnings could pressure mining sector sentiment and investor returns.
  • Short-term FX volatility remains a risk as the pound reacts to labour market data and shifting expectations for UK interest rates.

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