UBS shifted its recommendation on Swiss travel retailer Avolta AG to buy from neutral and increased its 12-month price target to CHF65 from CHF48, a move that pushed the stock higher by more than 5% on the day of the note. The brokerage highlighted a combination of improved capital allocation, a brighter passenger-growth outlook and an equity free cash flow profile it considers underappreciated by the market.
Market snapshot
Avolta shares were quoted at CHF49.52 on Feb. 16, trading at the top of a 52-week range that runs from CHF32.66 to CHF49.52 and implying a market capitalization of CHF6.76 billion.
UBS view on underlying sales momentum
In its analysis, UBS said the current share price appears to reflect very modest organic sales growth for 2026 - roughly 1% to 2% - which the brokerage regards as conservative. UBS instead models organic sales growth of about 4% for 2026 and notes consensus market expectations sit between 4% and 6% for the same year.
Capital allocation and balance-sheet progress
UBS also revised its assessment of Avolta capital allocation after the company signalled a move away from pursuing large acquisitions toward returning cash to shareholders and paying down debt. The brokerage highlighted a sharp reduction in leverage, with net debt to EBITDA falling to an estimated 0.9x in 2025 from roughly 4.5x in 2022.
"The rising focus on ROIC and improved cash conversion should support the valuation multiple from here," analysts at UBS said.
Earnings and cash-flow forecasts
UBS projects earnings per share of CHF3.16 in 2026, up 11.3% from an estimated CHF2.84 in 2025. The firm expects equity free cash flow to reach CHF511 million in 2026, which it translates into a yield of roughly 7.3% on the equity. UBS noted this yield is above the stock s 10-to-15-year historical average of approximately 5% and also higher than the Swiss small- and mid-cap typical range of about 3% to 6%.
To reflect operational improvements, the brokerage raised its 2026-27 equity free cash flow estimates by between 2.5% and 5%, citing working-capital efficiencies. UBS also increased its mid-term discounted cash flow (DCF) sales growth assumption by 100 basis points to 3.5%, and nudged its assumed core EBITDA margin up by 25 basis points to 9.75%.
Passenger and capacity assumptions
UBS referenced an IATA forecast for global passenger growth of 5.2% in 2026 and pointed to Cirium DIIO data showing European capacity growth running at about 4.3% to 6.8% across the first half of 2026, while North American capacity growth expectations have recovered to a range near 0.8% to 2.6%.
At the same time, UBS Evidence Lab survey results reported no acceleration in the frequency with which airport passengers compare duty-free prices with online alternatives, a behavioural datapoint that the note includes in its assessment of retail dynamics.
Merchandising and revenue mix details
Avolta has increased the share of local-content items in its retail assortment to about 30% from prior levels of 15% to 20%. UBS also highlighted that food and beverage (F&B) now represents roughly 30% of revenues following the Autogrill acquisition, and noted structural differences between F&B and retail: concession fees for F&B are approximately 17% of sales versus roughly 30% for retail, and F&B contracts tend to run for 10 to 20 years compared with 5 to 10 years for retail contracts.
Valuation scenarios
UBS laid out three discrete scenarios for Avolta's 2026 outcome and corresponding valuations. In an upside case - which assumes organic sales growth of 7% and a core EBITDA margin of 10% - the stock is valued at CHF80. The brokerage s base case, built on 4% growth and a 9.8% margin, supports the CHF65 price target. A downside scenario, assuming 1% growth and a 9.5% margin, produces a valuation of CHF35.
UBS said its discounted cash flow framework uses a weighted average cost of capital of 7.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2%.
Quant tools and stock screening note
The note also included a market-facing product message about a quantitative portfolio tool that evaluates AVOLz and other companies across more than 100 financial metrics, noting that the tool identifies names based on fundamentals, momentum and valuation. The message referenced past winners identified by the tool, and invited readers to see whether AVOLz features in the tool's strategies.
Conclusion
UBS s upgrade and higher price target reflect a mix of improved capital discipline, notable debt reduction and a cash-flow profile UBS believes the market has not fully priced. The brokerage s updated earnings, cash-flow and margin assumptions, together with its scenario-based valuations, form the basis for its new buy recommendation and CHF65 target.