UBS moved Rockwool International A/S from a neutral rating to a buy on Wednesday and increased its 12-month price target to DKr255 from DKr240. The broker pointed to a number of operational and financial developments it argues justify the upgrade: a margin trough in the fourth quarter of 2025 that was higher than expected, stronger-than-anticipated North American demand, and a more transparent capital expenditure outlook following two profit warnings in the prior year. Shares reacted positively, rising by more than 3% on the news.
At the center of UBS's revision is Q4 2025 reported performance. Rockwool’s EBIT margin for the period came in at 12.9% after excluding Russian assets that were seized by the Russian government in January 2026. That outcome exceeded UBS’s earlier projection of an 11.5% margin for the quarter.
Company management has guided 2026 margins to a range of 13% to 14%, which it describes as up to 100 basis points above the 2025 exit rate. UBS models a 14.1% EBIT margin for 2026 within that guidance band and projects continued improvement out to 15.9% by 2030. By comparison, UBS notes a historical "normal" run-rate margin at roughly 12%, indicating the projected paths sit above that floor.
UBS highlighted management’s conservative guiding record in saying that Rockwool is targeting margins for 2026 as much as 100 basis points higher than the 2025 exit rate.
The prior margin compression through 2025 was mainly linked to a rise in personnel expenses. The company saw personnel costs increase by about 15% over two years as headcount rose by around 600 employees, roughly 5% of the workforce, in preparation for capacity expansion.
Despite the personnel cost pressure, gross margins held steady at about 46% in Q4 2025, with energy and raw material costs described as contained in the period.
Demand trends were another underpinning of UBS’s positive reassessment. Rockwool reported 9% organic growth in North America in Q4 2025, measured against a 15% comparable-period base a year earlier. That growth outperformed major building-products peers, which posted results ranging from -17% to +2% over the same period. UBS’s note highlights the relatively low penetration of stone wool insulation in the U.S. market at 4%-5%, versus 19% in Canada and 24% in Europe.
UBS also drew attention to accelerating residential building permit activity across several Eastern European markets - specifically Poland, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, the Czech Republic and Slovakia - where Rockwool has about 14% of sales, the second-largest exposure among its European lightside peers. Combined, North America and Eastern Europe represent more than 35% of Rockwool’s revenue, underscoring the geographic concentration of the company’s growth drivers.
On volumes, UBS is forecasting growth of 3% in 2026, accelerating to 6% by 2029.
Capital spending is a significant element of the near-term financial outlook. Management guided capex of €650 million for 2026, above prior consensus of approximately €500 million. That program includes building seven new plants through 2030 on top of a current base of 40 plants, which UBS estimates will add about 20% to total capacity. UBS modeled capex as flat in 2027 before declining to roughly €550 million by 2030, implying that 2026 and 2027 are likely peak years for investment.
Higher near-term investment will push leverage and free cash flow dynamics into focus. UBS forecasts net debt of €321 million for 2026, equivalent to about 0.1x EBITDA, rising to €429 million in 2027 before improving in later years. UBS expects free cash flow to be insufficient to cover the €0.60-per-share dividend in 2026 and 2027, but still considers leverage manageable and well below management’s stated 1.0x ceiling.
Analytically, UBS sits 4%-6% ahead of consensus EPS for 2026-2028. The firm also adjusted its EPS outlook to reflect the impact of the Russian asset seizure, which reduced 2026 EPS estimates by 15% to €1.86 from a prior €2.19.
Valuation under UBS’s DCF-based approach produces the DKr255 price target, implying an 18x 2027 price-to-earnings multiple. UBS notes that 18x sits at the lower end of Rockwool’s pre-COVID trading range of 20x-26x and is comparable to the peer Kingspan at 18x. UBS presents scenario analysis around the base case: an upside case with a DKr324 target assuming 7% like-for-like sales growth in 2026 and a 14.7% EBIT margin, and a downside case at DKr199 assuming 2.5% growth and a 13.9% margin.
Summary
UBS upgraded Rockwool to buy and raised its price target to DKr255 after Q4 2025 margins beat expectations, North American organic growth outpaced peers, and management provided a detailed capex plan. UBS models margin recovery through 2026 and further expansion to 2030, while treating 2026-27 as peak investment years that will pressure near-term free cash flow and net debt but leave leverage below management’s 1.0x threshold.
Key points
- UBS upgraded Rockwool to buy and raised the 12-month target to DKr255, citing a margin trough in Q4 2025 that exceeded expectations and stronger North American growth.
- Management guided 2026 margins of 13%-14%; UBS models 14.1% for 2026 and 15.9% by 2030, above a historical run-rate EBIT margin of roughly 12%.
- Capex for 2026 is guided at €650m to fund seven new plants through 2030, increasing capacity by about 20% and driving net debt to an expected €321m in 2026 and €429m in 2027 before improvement.
Risks and uncertainties
- Near-term cash flow strain - Free cash flow is expected to be insufficient to cover the €0.60-per-share dividend in 2026-2027, which may affect cash returns or require balance-sheet management; this primarily impacts investors and credit-sensitive stakeholders in building-products and construction sectors.
- Execution risk on capex - The planned seven-plant expansion and elevated capex in 2026-27 are central to volume and margin targets; any slippage could affect capacity additions and margins, impacting industrial construction and materials markets.
- Geographic concentration and asset loss - The seizure of Russian assets reduced 2026 EPS by 15%, illustrating geopolitical and operational risks tied to international assets and regional exposure in revenue.