Summary
UBS shifted its recommendation on Swedish property portal Hemnet Group AB to "neutral" from "sell" after the company's shares dropped approximately 50% in the past six months. The brokerage also reduced its 12-month price target to SEK 122 from SEK 140, a 13% cut, and warned investors to expect a soft first quarter. Shares reacted by falling more than 3% on the day of the note.
UBS rationale and near-term outlook
UBS said the magnitude of Hemnet's share-price de-rating has narrowed potential downside, but it declined to endorse buying the stock because of elevated uncertainty over whether the early signs of listings growth will be sustained and because of ongoing competitive threats. The analysts specifically noted that consensus expectations could be re-rated lower in the short term as the market incorporates 1Q26 weakness and assesses the implications of the company's new payment framework following the SFPL launch. "We believe consensus can de-rate in the short-term as the broader market incorporates 1Q26 weakness and digests the new framework post SFPL launch," the UBS note said.
UBS's Q1 2026 projections anticipate a sharp contraction: revenue is forecast to decline 22.9% year-on-year to SEK 253.2 million, while EBITDA is expected to fall to SEK 95.8 million. Those EBITDA and revenue estimates sit 19% and 28% below current consensus, respectively, according to the brokerage.
SFPL rollout and listings dynamics
The rating revision follows Hemnet's February introduction of a "Sell first, pay later" payment option, which lets sellers defer listing fees until after a property sale. UBS estimated that within its first month the new feature achieved about 49% penetration of published listings in Stockholm County. Despite that early uptake, total published listings under Hemnet's financial reporting methodology fell 30% year-on-year in February.
UBS expects listings to move from a 28% year-on-year decline in March to a 5% year-on-year increase in April. The bank attributes the expected rebound to the combined effect of the SFPL rollout and a regulatory change effective April 1 that raised Sweden's loan-to-value cap from 85% to 90% — a mortgage-rule easing that could unlock some seller activity. A Hemnet agent survey cited by UBS indicated that roughly 24% of potential sellers had been deferring listings pending the regulatory change, which the firm translates into about 7,600 units of pent-up supply.
Full-year outlook and monetization metrics
For the full year 2026 UBS models flat published listings, expects revenue to rise 3.1% to SEK 1.574 billion, and forecasts EBITDA of SEK 743 million. Those figures are 6% and 10% below consensus, respectively. UBS also highlighted a deceleration in paid ARPL (average revenue per listing): growth slowed to 10.6% year-on-year in January-February 2026, down from 19% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 40% in the first quarter of 2025. UBS's ARPL assumption for full-year 2026 is 14% growth.
Competitive and operational risks
UBS flagged specific risks to Hemnet's recovery. One is a February agreement in which Fastighetsbyrån - which facilitates roughly a quarter of Swedish property transactions - signed a direct listings partnership with rival platform Booli. Another is Hemnet's disclosure that transactions on its platform fell 5% year-on-year in 2025 against a market the company reports as flat overall. Those developments underscore potential headwinds to listing volumes and monetization.
In scenario analysis, UBS set a downside case valuing Hemnet at SEK 95 per share if the listings recovery proves temporary, while an upside case of SEK 160 per share assumes published listings fully revert to 2024 levels. Based on UBS's 2026 estimates, Hemnet's shares trade at a 4.4% free cash flow yield.
Implications for markets and sectors
- Real estate platforms - Hemnet's listing and monetization trajectory will be a near-term focus of sector watchers.
- Swedish housing market - mortgage rule changes and agent behavior are influencing listing supply timing.
- Equity markets - sharp prior de-rating has altered risk-reward and valuation benchmarks for Hemnet.