UBS reported a sharp slowdown in iPhone shipments into China in January, estimating a decline of about 37% year on year as momentum from the most recent product launch waned.
The bank's analysis focused on smartphone unit sell-in data for the Chinese market and noted that Apple’s shipments fell back after a period of elevated activity around the introduction of the iPhone 17 lineup late last year. "iPhone shipments in the month of January were down roughly 37% YoY following a 14% decline in December," analysts led by David Vogt said in the UBS note.
UBS highlighted that the steep January drop comes after an unusually strong sell-in phase tied to the device launch. The firm estimates that iPhone unit sell-in rose 28% year on year across the three-month window from September through November, a period when demand received a lift from modest promotional activity linked to the iPhone 17 series.
While UBS cautioned that monthly shipment figures can be volatile, it said the pullback in shipments appears consistent with the earlier surge. The bank added that softer shipments could flag weaker sell-through trends in coming months, though it framed this as a potential signal rather than a definitive outcome.
On the broader market, UBS estimated total smartphone sell-in in China dropped roughly 16% year on year in January. Apple’s share of those shipments was about 11% during the month, down from roughly 14% a year earlier and about 15% in January 2024, according to the note.
UBS's figures translate to an estimated 2.2 million iPhones shipped into China in January, which the bank identified as the lowest monthly level since January 2019.
Separately, Apple introduced a new MacBook model this week, the MacBook Neo, positioned at a lower entry price starting at $599 as the company targets a more price-sensitive PC market. The new MacBook Neo will use the A18 Pro chip, the same processor Apple first placed in the iPhone 16 Pro models in 2024. UBS did not link the laptop introduction to the smartphone shipment trends in its sell-in analysis.
Context on research and additional services referenced in the original material
The original reporting also included mention of a quantitative evaluation tool that assesses Apple alongside other companies using a range of financial metrics. That material described the tool's approach and cited past winners identified by the tool. The UBS shipment data and the product announcement are separate factual points included in the reporting.